經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇預(yù)期支撐全球股市

World stock markets hovered close to 2009 highs yesterday as growing optimism over prospects for a global economic recovery next year helped underpin a traditional pre-Christmas rally in Europe and the US. The FTSE World index was up 0.5 per cent at 342.07, just short of this year's peak of 344.67, while by midday in New York the S&P 500 was up 0.1 per cent at 1,119.09, although trading was thin.

全球股市昨日在2009年高點(diǎn)附近徘徊。人們對明年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇前景日益增強(qiáng)的樂觀情緒，幫助支撐了歐美傳統(tǒng)的圣誕節(jié)前漲勢。

The pan-European FTSE Eurofirst 300 index closed up 0.2 per cent at a 15-month closing peak of 1,037.34, while London's FTSE 100 index ended 0.8 per cent up at 5,372.38, extending its winter rally to within 10 points of its 2009 high.

富時(shí)環(huán)球指數(shù)(FTSE All World index)上漲0.5%，至342.07點(diǎn)，比今年的最高點(diǎn)位344.67點(diǎn)略低；而截至紐約午盤，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500(S&P 500)指數(shù)上漲了0.1%，至1119.09點(diǎn)，盡管交投清淡。

The Tokyo market was closed yesterday, although the Nikkei 225 Average ended Tuesday's session at a three-month peak. China's benchmark Shanghai Composite bounced back from seven-week lows to close 0.8 per cent higher at 3,074.

泛歐富時(shí)Eurofirst 300指數(shù)(FTSE Eurofirst 300)收漲0.2%，創(chuàng)下15個(gè)月來的收盤新高1037.34點(diǎn)；倫敦富時(shí)100指數(shù)(FTSE 100)延續(xù)了冬季的反彈，收漲0.8%，至5372.38點(diǎn)，距離其今年高點(diǎn)不到10點(diǎn)。

This week's gains have capped a remarkable year for global equities. Leading indices have rallied between 50 and 65 per cent from the 12-year lows they struck in March as central banks took emergency measures to ward off the downturn.

東京市場昨日閉市，但日經(jīng)225平均指數(shù)(Nikkei 225 Average)在前一天收于三個(gè)月新高。中國基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)上證綜合指數(shù)(Shanghai Composite)從7周低點(diǎn)反彈，收盤上漲0.8%，至3074點(diǎn)。

Recent economic releases – most notably November's extremely benign US non-farm payrolls report earlier this month – have raised expectations that next year should see global growth and corporate earnings accelerate.

本周的上漲為全球股市非凡的一年畫上了句號(hào)。隨著各國央行采取緊急措施來抗擊經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，各主要股指已從3月份的12年低點(diǎn)回升了50%到65%。

Sentiment has also been bolstered by the US Federal Reserve's pledge at its last policy meeting to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period”.

最近發(fā)布的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)——尤其是本月早些時(shí)候發(fā)布的美國11月份極為良好的非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)——使人們預(yù)期，明年應(yīng)該會(huì)看到全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，企業(yè)利潤加速上升。

“Equity markets should continue to rise next year, supported by low policy rates and further compression of risk premia,” said analysts at JPMorgan.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)在最近一次政策會(huì)議上承諾在“相當(dāng)長時(shí)期內(nèi)”將利率維持在“極低”水平，也提升了市場的人氣。

Economic data and earnings surprises have been the dominant driver for equities this year, they added. But asset reflation was “likely to be a more important driver in 2010, suggesting more gradual and more modest equity price appreciation”.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)分析師表示：“在低政策利率與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)進(jìn)一步收窄的支撐下，各股票市場明年應(yīng)該會(huì)繼續(xù)上揚(yáng)。”

Other market indicators have highlighted growing investor confidence.

他們補(bǔ)充表示，經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)與好于預(yù)期的利潤是今年股市的主要推動(dòng)因素。但資產(chǎn)再膨脹“可能會(huì)是2010年更重要的推動(dòng)因素，這意味著股價(jià)將呈現(xiàn)比較逐漸及小幅的上漲”。

其它市場指數(shù)也突顯出投資者的信心正日漸增強(qiáng)。

譯者/董琴