美國(guó)人眼中最“玄乎”的國(guó)家和地區(qū)

      美國(guó)《外交政策》雜志網(wǎng)站8月7日發(fā)表了美國(guó)學(xué)者David Rothkopf的文章，題目是 The world's 10 most dangerous countries(全世界十大最危險(xiǎn)國(guó)家和地區(qū))，他的觀點(diǎn)在美國(guó)和西方很有代表性，值得中國(guó)讀者參考研究。在這份名單中，美國(guó)是排在第一位最具危險(xiǎn)性的國(guó)家，David Rothkopf的理由很簡(jiǎn)單：因?yàn)槊绹?guó)太強(qiáng)大了，翻一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤就會(huì)影響整個(gè)世界，自然就是最危險(xiǎn)的。而中國(guó)排在了第二，也是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)太強(qiáng)大了，但是中國(guó)自己卻不承認(rèn)，因而不承擔(dān)相應(yīng)責(zé)任造成了世界系統(tǒng)失衡的危險(xiǎn)。

　　10. 委內(nèi)瑞拉(Venezuela)

　　Ok, Chávez won't start any world wars. But think of his disruptive reach around the hemisphere, his support for the FARC, and his cultivation of ties to Russia, China and the Middle East and its clear this is the one guy who is most likely to disrupt lives in Latin America for the foreseeable future。

　　不錯(cuò)，查韋斯可能沒(méi)有興趣挑起世界大戰(zhàn)，但是他支援哥倫比亞游擊隊(duì)、與俄羅斯、中國(guó)和一些中東國(guó)家關(guān)系密切。委內(nèi)瑞拉是最有可能影響拉丁美洲穩(wěn)定的勢(shì)力之一。

　　9. 伊拉克和沙特阿拉伯 (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) (并列)

　　The final chapter has not been written in Iraq. Saddam may not have posed the threat Bush ascribed to him, but the fragmentation of this country (particularly in Kurdistan) could be massively destabilizing in the region and create real problems with Turkey, Iran, and Russia. The Saudis support terror, their succession picture is murky, they are likely to be one of the first to respond to Iranian nukes with a program of their own, and they pull key levers in OPEC. Hard not to include them, too。

　　伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)讓這個(gè)國(guó)家陷入分裂的深淵，影響了整個(gè)地區(qū)的穩(wěn)定，給土耳其、伊朗、俄羅斯帶來(lái)大麻煩。沙特阿拉伯支援恐怖勢(shì)力，本身繼承問(wèn)題尚存變數(shù)，他們很可能是對(duì)伊朗核計(jì)劃威脅做出最快反應(yīng)并開(kāi)始自己的核計(jì)劃的國(guó)家之一。此外，他們還掌握著石油輸出國(guó)家組織的權(quán)力杠桿。

　　8. 歐盟 The European Union

　　Europe should be a force for stability in the world. But an EU without an effective foreign policy mechanism, without the ability to shoulder its share of the military burden associated with keeping the world safe, with a faltering Euro and with too many new members is a big void where the world needs strength. Sometimes the greatest threat comes from those who could take action to preserve stability but who do not。

　　歐洲本該是維護(hù)世界穩(wěn)定的一支重要力量，但卻因?yàn)闆](méi)有有效的外交政策機(jī)制、沒(méi)有擔(dān)負(fù)起維護(hù)世界安全軍事重任的能力。加上蹣跚的歐元和太多新成員加入，導(dǎo)致其缺乏力量。有時(shí)候，最大的危險(xiǎn)恰好來(lái)自于那些有能力維持世界穩(wěn)定、但卻對(duì)此毫無(wú)作為的國(guó)家。

　　7. 尼日利亞和剛果(金)  ( Nigeria and Congo )(并列)

　　Nigeria is the biggest country on a continent that is increasingly important to the world for oil and other resources. It is a major player in the global energy scene. And it faces multiple threats both internally and from a truly scary neighborhood. Congo is the site of the world's most deadly conflict of the past decade and both a metaphor and hub for the kind of regional fracturing that make instability in Africa one of the things most worrying to U.S. and European military commanders。

　　尼日利亞是非洲大陸上的最大國(guó)家，憑藉石油和其他資源，非洲對(duì)世界的重要性正不斷增加。但是尼日利亞面臨著嚴(yán)峻的國(guó)內(nèi)問(wèn)題，外加實(shí)在令人擔(dān)憂的鄰國(guó)。過(guò)去10年間，剛果(金)是世界上沖突最血腥的地區(qū)，是整個(gè)非洲地區(qū)不穩(wěn)定的重要因素，也是令美國(guó)和歐盟軍事指揮官感到最頭疼的地方。

　　6. 以色列和巴勒斯坦 (Israel and Palestine)(并列)

　　This is a dangerous place, for sure. Hostile or ill-considered moves by either party can trigger regional instability that would impact global energy markets and draw the attention of every major world power. The only reason this festering wound is ranked so low: everyone is so accustomed to it that it is more likely than not to have very narrow consequences even if it heats to a boil for extended periods。

　　毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，這是一個(gè)非常危險(xiǎn)的地方。雙方的每一個(gè)敵對(duì)的或者笨拙的舉動(dòng)都可能觸發(fā)地區(qū)不穩(wěn)定，影響全球能源市場(chǎng)，因此巴以之間的關(guān)系吸引著每個(gè)世界大國(guó)的注意力。這樣的火藥桶沒(méi)有排在比第六名更高的原因只是因?yàn)槭澜缍紝?duì)以巴沖突習(xí)以為常了。

　　5. 伊朗(Iran)    

　　Iran could be an important regional force for stability. But for the near term that looks pretty unlikely. Meanwhile, if the Iranian nuclear program triggers a regional arms race that may not mean state-on-state thermonuclear disaster (deterrence probably still works for most states) but it vastly increases the likelihood that some nuke ends up in the hands of some non-state (or allegedly non-state) actor。

　　伊朗可能會(huì)成為維護(hù)地區(qū)穩(wěn)定的重要力量，但是從近期來(lái)看，其發(fā)揮穩(wěn)定作用的可能性不大。此外，伊朗核計(jì)劃極有可能引發(fā)地區(qū)軍備競(jìng)賽。盡管這并不意味著會(huì)造成核災(zāi)難，卻非常有可能讓核武器落入不受國(guó)家控制的玩家手中。 

　　4. 俄羅斯(Russia)

　　I rank them behind Pakistan because the odds are better that their desire to be part of the world system ultimately suppresses the country's more dangerous impulses. And because they are likely for the near term to be more dangerous as a diplomatic and political disruptor and as a regional mischief maker than as a direct military threat to anyone outside their immediate neighborhood. If I'm in that neighborhood though, I'm uncomfortable. And on top of all that, the most recent picture of a bare-chested Putin on horseback has me worried。

　　把俄羅斯排在巴基斯坦后面，希望俄羅斯的正能壓邪。在短期內(nèi)，俄羅斯的威脅還只局限于外交和政治上，至多是地區(qū)性的麻煩制造者，而非直接的全球性軍事威脅。要是誰(shuí)當(dāng)俄羅斯的鄰居，肯定會(huì)寢食難安。此外，普京騎在馬上袒胸露臂的照片讓我感到非常不安。

　　3. 巴基斯坦 Pakistan

　　Pakistan is just barely a functioning state in the pieces of the country where the government has some control. As for the rest of the place? There are pieces that never bought into the idea of the Pakistani nation. So take that, add nukes, add the impact on India and Afghanistan, add al Qaeda and the Taliban, add the country as a petri dish and a symbol for radical Islam and it's still the place with the biggest potential to blow up into something very messy for the world in the next several years。

　　巴基斯坦支離破碎，其國(guó)家功能不健全，因?yàn)槠渲醒胝畬?duì)部分地區(qū)幾乎失去控制力。核武器，加上印度、阿富汗、“基地”組織以及塔利班的影響，巴基斯坦已經(jīng)被看作激進(jìn)伊斯蘭主義的象征。這里是世界上在今后若干年內(nèi)最具爆炸性而陷入混亂的地區(qū)。 

　　2. 中國(guó) (China)

　　I do not believe China is a military threat to the U.S. or to anyone now or at any time in the near future. Rather they are on top of this list for the same reason that the number one country is: the most dangerous countries are the ones with the most power. They flex their muscle ... economic, political, or military... and they have the biggest impact. Or, as in the case of China, if they don't ... if they remain the reluctant great power ... and don't assume a role in the international system proportionate to their power, it will throw the system out of balance. (For example: if Iran's nuclear program is a threat and China could make a difference in containing it but doesn't ... they become a contributor to the threat。)

　　我不認(rèn)為中國(guó)是對(duì)美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家的軍事威脅，至少現(xiàn)在和在不久的將來(lái)還不是。中國(guó)之所以被選為世界上第二大危險(xiǎn)國(guó)家是因?yàn)樽钗ｋU(xiǎn)的國(guó)家就是最強(qiáng)大的國(guó)家。中國(guó)政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)以及軍事領(lǐng)域日益增強(qiáng)，影響力堪稱極致。問(wèn)題是中國(guó)不肯做超級(jí)強(qiáng)權(quán)，對(duì)發(fā)揮與其地位相稱的影響?yīng)q猶豫豫，致使國(guó)際系統(tǒng)失衡。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，如果伊朗成為核威脅需要中國(guó)的圍堵，但中國(guó)拒絕，這樣中國(guó)本身就構(gòu)成了威脅的一部分。

　　1. 美國(guó) The United States

　　I generally believe the U.S. is a force for good in the world and I am inclined to believe that is the objective of the current administration. But there is no denying that the one country who has most aggressively reached out to touch the world militarily in the past decade is the Untied States. Further, and more importantly, following the logic in the EU and China mentions above...no one has more power than the United States. That means no one can do more damage with a mistake or even with inaction. Also: as in the case of China and the EU, our economic missteps punish the planet and there is very little evidence to suggest we've taken the steps we need to avoid another meltdown of the 2008-2009 variety. Ask yourself: What has harmed more people on the planet, terrorist brutality or Wall Street venality?

　　總的來(lái)說(shuō)我相信美國(guó)是世界上的一個(gè)正面力量，現(xiàn)政府也把維護(hù)世界利益作為目標(biāo)。但不可否認(rèn)的是，美國(guó)也是過(guò)去10年中世界上最具攻擊性的國(guó)家之一。而且，更為重要的是，在世人眼中，沒(méi)有比美國(guó)更強(qiáng)大的力量。按照我們前面提到中國(guó)和歐盟時(shí)的邏輯，這也就意味著美國(guó)的危險(xiǎn)也更大。美國(guó)的一個(gè)失誤或者不作為可能造成巨大損害。美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)失誤懲罰的是全世界，到現(xiàn)在依然沒(méi)有明顯證據(jù)顯示美國(guó)人已經(jīng)吸取了教訓(xùn)不會(huì)重蹈2008-2009年危機(jī)的覆轍。捫心自問(wèn)：到底是恐怖主義給人類造成的傷害大，還是華爾街貪婪的傷害更大？