“貿(mào)易壁壘并未影響全球貿(mào)易”

A sharply rising number of attempts to block imports has led to a much smaller increase in actual tariffs and affected only a limited share of global trade, according to World Bank research.

世界銀行(World Bank)的研究顯示，雖然限制進口的企圖激增，但實際導致提高關稅的情況卻少得多，只影響到全球貿(mào)易中有限的一部分。

The latest results from the Global Antidumping Database, a monitoring service sponsored by the bank, show the number of new official investigations into imposing so-called “trade remedies” – emergency blocks on imports – rising sharply in the third quarter of 2009. Investigations are opened at the behest of domestic producers seeking relief from cheap imports.

世界銀行資助的監(jiān)督服務——全球反傾銷數(shù)據(jù)庫(Global Antidumping Database)的最新研究結(jié)果顯示，2009年第三季度，各國為實施所謂的“貿(mào)易救濟措施”（對進口實施緊急限制）而新展開的正式調(diào)查數(shù)量急劇增加。調(diào)查是應本土制造商的要求而展開的，這些制造商試圖減輕廉價進口商品的沖擊。

The political salience of import curbs has risen recently after US President Barack Obama provoked a hailstorm of criticism by imposing so-called “safeguard” restrictions on Chinese tyres.

不久前，美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)對中國輪胎實施所謂的“特保”限制措施，由此招致各方強烈批評。此后，進口限制的政治顯著性有所提升。

But separate research by the bank suggests that the rise in trade barriers has so far affected only a small part of global commerce. New remedies proposed between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 covered just 0.4 per cent of the value of imports to the US and the EU. Even the investigations started by China and India, two of the heaviest users of trade remedies, would affect at most 0.6 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively of their imports.

但世界銀行進行的另一項研究顯示，迄今為止，貿(mào)易壁壘的提高僅僅影響了很小一部分全球貿(mào)易。2008年第一季度至2009年第一季度之間新提議的貿(mào)易救濟措施，僅覆蓋了美國和歐盟進口額的0.4%。即使是由中國和印度啟動的調(diào)查，也最多只會分別影響兩國0.6%和1.8%的進口。中國和印度是使用貿(mào)易救濟措施最頻繁的兩個國家。

The figures suggest that despite a flurry of actual and proposed emergency blocks on imports – in defiance of promises by the Group of 20 leading economies to eschew protectionist actions – the restrictions are having little effect on trade.

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管一些國家無視20國集團(G20)在避免保護主義行動方面的承諾，大批出臺對進口產(chǎn)品施行緊急限制的實際舉措或提議，但這些限制措施對貿(mào)易的影響很小。

After starting an investigation into whether imports are being dumped, illicitly subsidised or are simply flooding in at a rate that threatens domestic industry, governments typically impose full restrictions on imports 12-18 months later. The 44 new investigations in the third quarter, a 53 per cent increase on the same quarter in 2008, would normally suggest a wave of restrictions to come next year.

一旦啟動調(diào)查進口商品是否正被傾銷、獲得非法補貼，或只是大舉涌入的速度對本國產(chǎn)業(yè)構(gòu)成威脅，各國政府一般會在12至18個月后對進口產(chǎn)品實施全面限制。今年第三季度，全球共啟動了44宗新調(diào)查，較2008年同期有53%的增長，這通常會表明，明年會出現(xiàn)一波限制措施。