研究：經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退令溫室氣體排放顯著下降

The recession has resulted in an unparalleled fall in greenhouse gas emissions, providing a “unique opportunity” to move the world away from high- carbon growth, an International Energy Agency study has found.

國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IEA)的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退導(dǎo)致溫室氣體排放量創(chuàng)下前所未有的降幅，為世界擺脫高碳增長(zhǎng)模式創(chuàng)造了“獨(dú)特機(jī)遇”。

In the first big study of the impact of the recession on climate change, the IEA found that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels had undergone “a significant decline” this year – further than in any year in the last 40. The fall will exceed the drop in the 1981 recession that followed the oil crisis.

在首個(gè)關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退對(duì)氣候變化影響的大型研究中，國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)現(xiàn)，化石燃料燃燒產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳(CO2)排放量今年出現(xiàn)“顯著下降”——降幅大于過(guò)去40年中的任何一年。此次排放量下降將超過(guò)1981年石油危機(jī)過(guò)后經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間的降幅。

Falling industrial output is largely responsible for the plunge in CO2, but other factors have played a role, including the shelving of many plans for new coal-fired power stations owing to falling demand and lack of financing.

工業(yè)產(chǎn)出下降是二氧化碳排放量驟降的主要原因，但其它因素也發(fā)揮了作用，例如由于需求削減和資金短缺，許多燃煤電站建設(shè)計(jì)劃遭到擱置。

For the first time, government policies to cut emissions have also had a significant impact. The IEA estimates that about a quarter of the reduction is the result of regulation, an “unprecedented” proportion. Three initiatives had a particular effect: Europe's target to cut emissions by 20 per cent by 2020; US car emission standards; and China's energy efficiency policies.

政府的減排政策也首度發(fā)揮了重大作用。國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)估計(jì)，減少的排放量中約有四分之一是監(jiān)管的結(jié)果，這一比例是“空前”的。效果特別顯著的舉措有三：歐洲到2020年前減排20%的目標(biāo)；美國(guó)汽車廢氣排放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；以及中國(guó)的能效政策。

Fatih Birol, chief IEA economist, said the fall was “surprising” and would make it “much less difficult” to achieve the emissions reductions scientists say are needed to avoid dangerous global warming. “We have a new situation, with the changes in energy demand and the postponement of many energy investments,” he said. “But this only has meaning if we can make use of this unique window of opportunity. [That means] a deal in Copenhagen.”

國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家法提赫•比羅爾(Fatih Birol)表示，排放量的降幅“令人意外”，而且會(huì)使實(shí)現(xiàn)減排目標(biāo)的“難度大大降低”——科學(xué)家們認(rèn)為若要避免后果嚴(yán)重的全球變暖，就必須實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo)。“由于能源需求發(fā)生變化，以及許多能源投資項(xiàng)目延期，我們面臨新的形勢(shì)，”他表示。“但只有在我們能夠充分利用這次特殊機(jī)遇期的前提下，一切才有意義。這意味著我們必須在哥本哈根達(dá)成協(xié)議。”

譯者/管婧