日本7月份出口環(huán)比增長2.3%

日本央行(BoJ)昨日表示，經(jīng)季節(jié)性調(diào)整后，日本7月份出口量環(huán)比增長2.3%。來自亞洲的需求增強，加上補充庫存的活動，提振了日本制造商。

The volume of Japanese exports rose a seasonally adjusted 2.3 per cent in July from June as stronger demand from Asia and replenishment of inventories boosted manufacturers, the Bank of Japan said yesterday.

該數(shù)據(jù)表明，在7-9月份的這一季度，日本經(jīng)濟有望再取得可觀增長。上周的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，4-6月季度，產(chǎn)出按年率計算增長了3.7%。

The data suggest that Japan may enjoy another quarter of respectable growth from July to September, after last week's report that output rose at an annualised rate of 3.7 per cent in the April-June quarter.

財務省公布的另一組數(shù)據(jù)則顯示，經(jīng)季節(jié)性調(diào)整后，7月份出口商品的價值下降了1.3%。但出口量能夠更好地衡量日本經(jīng)濟的活躍程度以及海外需求。

The value of goods exported fell a seasonally adjusted 1.3 per cent, ac-cording to a different data series published by the Ministry of Finance. But, volumes are a better guide to activity in the Japanese economy and demand from overseas.

經(jīng)濟學家告誡稱，雖然月出口量較2月份低點回升了23%，但一旦海外客戶備足了存貨，復蘇之勢可能停滯。“近6個月出口增長很快的事實，并不能很好地說明最終需求的狀況，”東京麥格理證券(Macquarie Securities)首席經(jīng)濟學家理查德·杰拉姆(Richard Jerram)表示。

Economists cautioned that while monthly export volumes were up by 23 per cent from their trough in February, the recovery might stall once customers abroad have rebuilt inventories. “The fact that it's gone up very quickly over the last six months doesn't tell you much about final demand,” said Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo.

7月份出口量較去年同期下降27%，出口額則同比下降36.5%。一年前金融危機尚未全面爆發(fā)。

Monthly export volumes are 27 per cent below levels of a year ago, before the financial crisis took hold. In value terms, exports were 36.5 per cent lower in July than a year before.

豐田(Toyota)昨日表示，從明年春季起的一年多時間內(nèi)，將關(guān)閉一條大規(guī)模國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)線。這表明該公司預計不會很快恢復到危機前的產(chǎn)出水平。

Toyota said yesterday that it would shut a big domestic production line for more than a year from next spring, in a sign that it does not expect a rapid recovery to pre-crisis output levels.

一些觀察家表示，出口復蘇勢頭或許已在減緩。“從7月份實際出口的增速放慢來看，推動出口回升的一些因素……可能已開始減弱。”法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)經(jīng)濟學家Ryutaro Kono和Azusa Kato在一份發(fā)給客戶的報告中寫道。

Some observers said that the momentum of export recovery might already be slowing. “Given the slower tempo of July's real exports, it seems that some of the drivers of the export rebound . . . could already be starting to wane,” BNP Paribas economists Ryutaro Kono and Azusa Kato wrote in a note to clients.

譯者/岱嵩