雙語(yǔ)新聞：墜機(jī)是否會(huì)引發(fā)伊朗危機(jī)

周一，伊朗總統(tǒng)易卜拉欣-萊西和外交部長(zhǎng)侯賽因-阿米爾-阿卜杜拉希安在直升機(jī)墜毀事件中喪生的消息得到證實(shí)，令世界震驚。
 

The crash is not necessarily related to the Israel-Palestine conflict. So far, Iran is attributing it to adverse weather conditions and mechanical failure. The sudden deaths of the president and foreign minister are significant and unexpected events for Iran. In the short term, the country will likely enter a period of national mourning, halting all formal activities, including diplomatic engagements. Iran is expected to declare a state of emergency.

墜機(jī)事件不一定與以色列-巴勒斯坦沖突有關(guān)。到目前為止，伊朗將其歸咎于惡劣的天氣條件和機(jī)械故障。對(duì)伊朗來(lái)說(shuō)，總統(tǒng)和外長(zhǎng)的突然死亡是意想不到的重大事件。短期內(nèi)，伊朗可能將進(jìn)入全國(guó)哀悼期，停止所有正式活動(dòng)，包括外交活動(dòng)。預(yù)計(jì)伊朗將宣布進(jìn)入緊急狀態(tài)。

Thereafter, a new presidential candidate will have to be selected. Vice-president Mohammad Mokhbar can step into Raisi's shoes in the interim, but Raisi was seen as a successor to the Supreme Leader. Therefore, Iran must carefully consider who will take Raisi's place in the long run. The country will need to soon decide who will run for the next presidency or the Expediency Discernment Council will choose as a candidate.

此后，必須選出新的總統(tǒng)候選人。副總統(tǒng)穆罕默德-莫赫巴爾可以臨時(shí)接替萊西的位置，但萊西被視為最高領(lǐng)袖的接班人。因此，伊朗必須慎重考慮從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看誰(shuí)將接替萊西的位置。伊朗需要盡快決定由誰(shuí)來(lái)競(jìng)選下屆總統(tǒng)，或者由 "遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)卓識(shí)委員會(huì)"（Expediency Discernment Council）來(lái)選擇候選人。
 

In the immediate aftermath of the deaths of Raisi and Abdollahian, it is unlikely Iran can focus on regional diplomacy. Recent de-escalation talks with the United States might be put on hold. This development can lead to a reduction in Iran's involvement in Middle East affairs. Iran has been a key supporter of the Axis of Resistance, backing groups such as Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and the Houthi movement in Yemen. Given the current situation, Iran may not be able to coordinate the collective actions of the resistance axis effectively. The military implications of this situation will require continued observation.
在拉伊西和阿卜杜拉希安剛剛?cè)ナ乐?，伊朗不太可能?zhuān)注于地區(qū)外交。最近與美國(guó)的降級(jí)談判可能會(huì)被擱置。這一事態(tài)發(fā)展可能導(dǎo)致伊朗減少對(duì)中東事務(wù)的參與。伊朗一直是抵抗軸心的主要支持者，支持的組織包括巴勒斯坦的哈馬斯、黎巴嫩的真主黨、伊拉克的人民動(dòng)員部隊(duì)和也門(mén)的胡塞運(yùn)動(dòng)。鑒于當(dāng)前形勢(shì)，伊朗可能無(wú)法有效協(xié)調(diào)抵抗軸心的集體行動(dòng)。需要繼續(xù)觀察這一局勢(shì)的軍事影響。