劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 160

Day 160 Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district

The following appeared in a recommendation from the President of the Amburg Chamber of Commerce.

“Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg, on the other hand, recently instituted police patrols on bicycles in its business district. However, the rate of vandalism here remains constant. Since high-intensity lighting is clearly the most effective way to combat crime, we recommend using the money that is currently being spent on bicycle patrols to install such lighting throughout Amburg. If we install this high-intensity lighting, we will significantly reduce crime rates in Amburg.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五問：

（1）“Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg, on the other hand, recently instituted police patrols on bicycles in its business district. However, the rate of vandalism here remains constant”是事實，“we recommend using the money that is currently being spent on bicycle patrols to install such lighting throughout Amburg”是結(jié)論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）文中舉例的時間點是 last October，過去發(fā)生的事情對今后發(fā)生的事情是否能夠起到指導(dǎo)作用？此處是否犯了時間軸論證的錯誤（過去不等于現(xiàn)在，現(xiàn)在不等于將來）？另外，文中提及的在 Belleville市的中心商業(yè)區(qū)安裝的高強度路燈一定能夠適用于任何商業(yè)區(qū)嗎？因為原文中并沒有給出詳細(xì)的因果論證，我們能否簡單地認(rèn)為 Belleville這個城市的破壞公物的行為減少一定是由于安裝高亮度的路燈導(dǎo)致的？也許還存在其他因素，如客流量減少、人口素質(zhì)提高等。

（3）Amburg這個城市采用自行車巡警在商業(yè)區(qū)巡查的方法沒有獲得成功，是否意味著這個方法在其他地區(qū)也不會成功？

（4）原文在談及破壞公物的行為時用的都是比例而非絕對數(shù)量，這在推理時可能會導(dǎo)致哪種謬誤？數(shù)字與比例不一定等價，根據(jù)這個比例所得出的結(jié)論不一定有參考意義。

（5）適合 Belleville這個城市的措施就一定適合 Amburg這個城市嗎？對不同地區(qū)來說，制約策略是否應(yīng)有所差異？因為不同地區(qū)的特點是不一樣的，商業(yè)區(qū)的人流量可能更大。另外，兩種策略之間一定是非此即彼的嗎？是否存在第三種策略或者兩種策略相結(jié)合的可能性？例如：在商業(yè)區(qū)安裝高強度照明燈，在居民區(qū)加強巡查警力，在其他區(qū)域安裝監(jiān)控設(shè)備等。