劉文勇GRE寫(xiě)作Argument題庫(kù) Day 157

Day 157 Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly

The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.

“Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profitsagain.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

五問(wèn)：

（1）“Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City”是事實(shí)，“it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly”是結(jié)論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）文中以五年前的情況與現(xiàn)在進(jìn)行比對(duì)是正確的做法嗎？隨著時(shí)間的變化，是否可能產(chǎn)生經(jīng)濟(jì)情況的變化？數(shù)字與比例一定是等價(jià)的嗎？銷售總額增長(zhǎng) 15%意味著每一個(gè)店鋪的銷售額都是增長(zhǎng)的嗎？

（3）Fish Emporium stores的營(yíng)業(yè)額增長(zhǎng)一定是由于他們投放了廣告嗎？?jī)杉虑橥瑫r(shí)出現(xiàn)一定意味著二者之間是因果關(guān)系嗎？是否還有其他因素？例如：商品種類增多、打折促銷活動(dòng)等。

（4）在 Gulf City的三家店鋪出現(xiàn)營(yíng)業(yè)額大幅增長(zhǎng)的現(xiàn)象，與廣告投放的關(guān)系明確嗎？在 Gulf City以外的店鋪出現(xiàn)了什么樣的變化？這種變化與雜志上投放的廣告關(guān)系大嗎？是否可能存在這樣的情況，即當(dāng)?shù)氐匿N量增長(zhǎng)是由于養(yǎng)魚(yú)戶的增加而非廣告的引導(dǎo)？如果類似的可能性真的存在，我們能否簡(jiǎn)單照搬 Fish Emporium公司的經(jīng)驗(yàn)？

（5）我們公司最近的銷售額下降是由于什么原因，是缺乏廣告推廣還是產(chǎn)品本身的問(wèn)題？獲取利潤(rùn)除了增加銷售額外還要降低成本，做廣告是否會(huì)增加成本、產(chǎn)生副作用？