劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫(kù) Day 43

Day 43 Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chairperson of the West Egg Town Council.

“Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of recycled material— which includes paper, plastic, and metal— should further increase, since charges for pickup of other household garbage will double. Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our town's strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五問(wèn)：

（1）“Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years”和“Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future”是事實(shí)，“the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted”是結(jié)論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）兩年前的預(yù)測(cè)是基于哪些要素進(jìn)行的？當(dāng)時(shí)是否可能已經(jīng)考慮到了回收率的提升等諸多要素？

（3）我們應(yīng)該思考，回收率在過(guò)去兩年提升了，就一定會(huì)在隨后幾年中延續(xù)下去嗎？過(guò)去和現(xiàn)在未必一致，現(xiàn)在與將來(lái)也不一定一致：時(shí)間軸論證是我們最應(yīng)該關(guān)注的錯(cuò)誤論證方法之一。

（4）可回收利用的垃圾（如紙、塑料、金屬）占垃圾總量的比例是多少呢？不可回收利用的垃圾（如廚余垃圾）有沒(méi)有可能更多呢？另外，提高收取垃圾的費(fèi)用，就意味著回收率一定會(huì)提高嗎？你能想出其他情形嗎？例如：通過(guò)焚燒、堆肥等方式處理垃圾，這樣回收率也不一定會(huì)提高。

（5）調(diào)查過(guò)程中 90%的居民說(shuō)會(huì)更多地進(jìn)行垃圾回收，就意味著他們一定會(huì)這樣做嗎？剩下 10%的居民呢？另外，居民處理垃圾的習(xí)慣是影響垃圾填埋場(chǎng)使用率的唯一因素嗎？你能想出其他因素嗎？例如：當(dāng)?shù)鼐用竦娜丝跀?shù)量增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致垃圾增多也是一個(gè)影響因素。