劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 33

Day 33 Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy

The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.

“Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase— and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

五問：

（1）“Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating”和“our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs”是事實(shí)，最后一句話中的 “construction of new generating plants will not be necessary”是結(jié)論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）原文以幾項(xiàng)最近的調(diào)查研究作為論據(jù)，但并未具體指明這些調(diào)查研究的普適性和有效性。而且，這些最近的研究能推測出十年乃至二十年后的狀況嗎？如果未來當(dāng)?shù)鼐用袢丝跀?shù)量增加，那么用電需求也會增加。

（3）住戶們都十分愿意節(jié)約能源，就意味著他們一定會節(jié)約能源嗎？大家是否還記得這個(gè)基本的道理：主觀意愿與客觀事實(shí)不能簡單地畫上等號。即便空調(diào)與冰箱的確更加省電了，但是，隨著人類社會的進(jìn)步，一個(gè)家庭中的電器數(shù)目是否可能會大幅增加？這是否會導(dǎo)致用電量的上漲？這一點(diǎn)在原文的論述中并未提及。

（4）新技術(shù)已經(jīng)可以使用并不意味著住戶一定會使用。住戶選擇一項(xiàng)新技術(shù)的原因除了這項(xiàng)技術(shù)是否先進(jìn)之外，是否可能還有其他的要素？例如：價(jià)格、外觀設(shè)計(jì)等。

（5）原文羅列了許多可能導(dǎo)致用電總量下降的條件，即便這些條件都成立，它們就是所有可能用電的方面了嗎？是否可能有其他導(dǎo)致用電量增加的因素在原文中并未被提及？你能羅列其中的一兩個(gè)嗎？例如：家里使用大功率的電器，加熱棒、浴霸等。另外，舊的發(fā)電廠能滿足用電需求就不用建新的了嗎？是否還有其他建設(shè)新廠的理由？例如：舊的發(fā)電廠效率低下，污染環(huán)境等。