A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
五問:
(1)“A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so”是事實(shí),“some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future”是結(jié)論,值得反駁嗎?
(2)長達(dá) 20年的研究時(shí)間足夠長嗎?文章里是否提供了充分的背景知識(shí)讓我們判定這個(gè)時(shí)間長度是否足夠?其他相應(yīng)的信息充足嗎?
(3)商業(yè)上使用水楊酸的方式可能有哪些?一定是作為食品添加劑被人們吃下去嗎?如果還有其他非食用性的商業(yè)用途,原文的結(jié)論是否還能成立呢?水楊酸還可用于化妝品、防腐劑、消毒劑等,這些與治療頭痛均無關(guān)系。
(4)原文中指出,報(bào)告頭疼的實(shí)驗(yàn)參與者直線減少,但文中是否給出了詳細(xì)的信息,確定這些參與者具有足夠的代表性?你能說說其他的可能性嗎?例如:體質(zhì)差異、年齡差異等。另外,報(bào)告頭疼的實(shí)驗(yàn)參與者人數(shù)持續(xù)減少一定是因?yàn)樗畻钏岬纳虡I(yè)使用增加嗎?還有其他因素嗎?例如:環(huán)境改善了,實(shí)驗(yàn)參與者加強(qiáng)了身體鍛煉、體質(zhì)增強(qiáng)了,或者服用了其他治療頭疼的藥物。
(5)原文只給出信息說水楊酸能夠減緩頭疼,但水楊酸的有效性在微量與巨量之間是否可能并沒有大的差異?更何況原文中并沒有強(qiáng)調(diào)所有的公司都將這樣做。另外,原文中是否強(qiáng)調(diào)了這些公司都會(huì)專門針對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)夭扇√囟ǖ牟呗??這會(huì)怎樣影響原文論述的有效性?如果添加水楊酸的食品并不受 Mentia當(dāng)?shù)厝藲g迎,那么居民攝入的水楊酸不一定會(huì)增多,頭痛癥狀也不一定會(huì)減少。
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