演講MP3+雙語文稿:如何為非洲帶來廉價的、可持續(xù)的電力

聽力課堂TED音頻欄目主要包括TED演講的音頻MP3及中英雙語文稿，供各位英語愛好者學習使用。本文主要內(nèi)容為演講MP3+雙語文稿:如何為非洲帶來廉價的、可持續(xù)的電力，希望你會喜歡！

【演講者及介紹】Rose M.Mutiso

作為能源促進增長中心的研究主任，能源科學家Rose M. Mutiso與全球專家網(wǎng)絡合作，在非洲和亞洲各地尋找解決能源短缺問題的辦法。她也是Mawazo研究所的共同創(chuàng)始人之一，幫助非洲婦女成為學者和思想領袖。

【演講主題】如何為非洲帶來負擔得起的、可持續(xù)的電力

How to bring affordable, sustainable electricity to Africa

【中英文字幕】

翻譯者Wanting Zhong 校對者Yihong Tang

00:13

So right now, nearly one billion people globally don't have access to electricity in their homes. And in sub-Saharan Africa, more than half of the population remain in the dark.

如今全球有近 10 億人 家中缺乏電力供應。 而在撒哈拉以南非洲， 超過半數(shù)的人口仍生活在黑暗之中。

00:25

So you probably all know this image from NASA. There's a name for this darkness. It's called "energy poverty," and it has massive implications for economic development and social well-being. One unique aspect of the energy poverty problem in sub-Saharan Africa -- and by the way, in this talk when I "energy," I mean "electricity" -- one thing that's unique about it is there isn't much legacy infrastructure already in place in many countries of the region. So, for example, according to 2015 data, the total installed electricity capacity in sub-Saharan Africa is only about 100 gigawatts. That's similar to that of the UK.

你們或許都見過 NASA 的這張照片。 這片黑暗有一個名字， 叫做“能源貧困”， 它對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與社會福祉 有深遠的影響。 撒哈拉以南非洲的能源貧困問題 有一點十分獨特—— 另外說明一下，在本次演講中 我所說的“能源”指的是“電力”—— 關于能源貧困問題的 一個獨特方面是， 這個地區(qū)的很多國家 缺少已經(jīng)建好 的遺留基礎設施。 舉個例子，根據(jù) 2015 年的數(shù)據(jù)， 撒哈拉以南非洲的總裝機容量 只有約 100 吉瓦（GW）， 與英國的總裝機容量差不多。

01:02

So this actually presents a unique opportunity to build an energy system in the 21st century almost from scratch. The question is: How do you do that? We could look back to the past and replicate the ways in which we've managed to bring stable, affordable electricity to a big part of the world's population. But we all know that that has some well-known terrible side effects, such as pollution and climate change, in addition to being costly and inefficient. With Africa's population set to quadruple by the end of the century, this is not a theoretical question. Africa needs a lot of energy, and it needs it fast, because its population is booming and its economy needs to develop.

這其實提供了一個獨特的機會， 讓我們能夠在21世紀 幾乎從零開始 構建一個能源系統(tǒng)。 問題在于：怎樣才能達成這個目標呢？ 我們可以回首過去， 效仿以前的做法， 這些辦法曾經(jīng)將穩(wěn)定、廉價的電力 帶給世界上大多數(shù)人口。 但我們都知道，過去的做法 有一些眾所周知的可怕的副作用， 比如環(huán)境污染和氣候變化， 以及高昂的成本與低下的效率。 隨著非洲的人口預計 在本世紀末增加四倍， 我們面對的并非 只是理論上的問題。 非洲需要大量能源， 這個需求迫在眉睫， 因為非洲的人口正在激增， 非洲的經(jīng)濟需要發(fā)展。

01:44

So for most countries, the general trajectory of electrification has been as follows. First, large-scale grid infrastructure is put in place, usually with significant public investment. That infrastructure then powers productive centers, such as factories, agricultural mechanization, commercial enterprises and the like. And this then stimulates economic growth, creating jobs, raising incomes and producing a virtuous cycle that helps more people afford more appliances, which then creates residential demand for electricity.

對大部分國家來說， 電氣化的一般軌跡 是這樣的： 首先，鋪設好大型電網(wǎng)基礎設施， 這一般需要大量公共投資。 那些基礎設施隨后 為生產(chǎn)中心供能， 比如工廠、機械化農(nóng)業(yè)、 商業(yè)企業(yè)等等。 這得以刺激經(jīng)濟增長， 創(chuàng)造就業(yè)，提高收入， 建立起一個能 幫助更多人 購置電器的良性循環(huán)， 從而創(chuàng)造居民對電力的需求。

02:15

But in sub-Saharan Africa, despite decades of energy projects, we haven't really seen these benefits. The energy projects have often been characterized by waste, corruption and inefficiency; our rural electrification rates are really low, and our urban rates could be better; the reliability of our electricity is terrible; and we have some of the highest electricity prices in the whole world. And on top of all of this, we are now facing the impacts of the growing climate catastrophe head-on. So Africa will need to find a different path.

但在撒哈拉以南非洲， 盡管能源項目開展了數(shù)十年， 我們并沒有觀察到這些效益。 這些能源項目常常意味著污染、 腐敗、效率低下； 我們的農(nóng)村電氣化普及率非常低， 城市的電氣化普及率 也有提升的空間； 我們的電力可靠性很糟糕； 我們的電費高居全世界的榜首。 在此之上， 我們?nèi)缃裾谥泵嫒諠u嚴重 的氣候災難帶來的影響。 非洲需要尋求一條不同的道路。

02:49

And, as it turns out, we are now witnessing some pretty exciting disruption in the African energy space. This new path is called off-grid solar, and it's enabled by cheap solar panels, advances in LED and battery technology, and combined with innovative business models. So these off-grid solar products typically range from a single light to home system kits that can charge phones, power a television or run a fan.

而事實證明，我們現(xiàn)在正在見證 非洲能源市場中 一些激動人心的變革。 這條嶄新的道路叫做“離網(wǎng)太陽能”， 它的誕生結合了廉價太陽能板， LED 和電池科技的發(fā)展， 以及創(chuàng)新性的商業(yè)模型。 這些離網(wǎng)太陽能產(chǎn)品多種多樣， 從簡單的一盞燈， 到能夠給手機充電、 給電視供能、 讓電扇運轉的居家系統(tǒng)組件。

03:15

I want to be clear: off-grid solar is a big deal in Africa. I have worked in the sector for years, and these products are enabling us to extend basic energy services to some of the world's poorest, raising their quality of life. This is a very good and a very important thing. However, off-grid solar will not solve energy poverty in Africa, and for that matter, neither will a top-down effort to connect every unserved household to the grid. See, I'm not here to rehash that played-out "on-versus-off-grid" or "old-versus-new" debate. Instead, I believe that our inability to grapple with and truly address energy poverty in Africa stems from three main sources.

我想強調(diào)的是： 離網(wǎng)太陽能在非洲非常重要。 我在這個領域工作多年， 而這些產(chǎn)品能讓我們 把基本的能源服務 送到世界上最為貧窮的人們手中， 提升了他們的生活質量。 這是件很好、很重要的事情。 但是，離網(wǎng)太陽能并不能解決 非洲能源貧困的問題。 就這一點來說， 自上而下、將每一個未通電的家庭 連接到電網(wǎng)上的嘗試， 也不能解決這個問題。 我并不想老調(diào)重談地 再議關于“入網(wǎng)還是離網(wǎng)” 或者“老技術還是新技術”的爭論。 反之， 我相信，我們之所以 無法掌控并真正解決 非洲的資源貧困問題， 其主要原因有三點。

03:56

First, we don't really have a clear understanding of what energy poverty is, or how deep it goes.

第一，我們對能源貧困是什么， 以及其扎根之深度 并沒有一個清楚的認知。

04:03

Second, we are avoiding complex systemic issues and prefer quick fixes.

第二，我們在逃避 復雜的體系上的問題， 而傾向于快速的權宜之計。

04:07

And third, we are misdirecting concerns about climate change. Combined, these three mistakes are leading us to impose a Western debate on the future of energy and falling back on paternalistic attitudes towards Africa.

第三，我們在誤導 對于氣候變化的關注。 這三個錯誤相結合， 導致我們對能源的未來 施加了西式的辯論， 重蹈了對非洲家長式態(tài)度的覆轍。

04:20

So let me try and unpack these three questions. First, what exactly is energy poverty? The main energy poverty targeted indicator is enshrined in the UN's Seventh Sustainable Development Goal, or SDG 7. It calls for 100 percent of the world's population to have access to electricity by the year 2030. This binary threshold, however, ignores the quality, reliability or utility of the power, though indicators are currently being developed that will try and capture these things.

那么，請讓我試圖理清這三個問題。 首先，能源貧困到底是什么？ 能源貧困的主要針對性指標 記載于聯(lián)合國的第七個 可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標， 即 SDG 7 之中。 這個目標呼吁，到 2030 年， 確保世界上所有人 都能獲得電力。 然而，這個二元化的門檻 忽略了能源的質量、 可靠性和效用， 不過目前我們正在研發(fā)能夠 嘗試捕捉這些要點的指標。

04:47

However, the question of when a household is considered "connected" is not quite clear-cut. So, for example, last year the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared all of the villages in India electrified, the criteria for electrification being a transformer in every village plus its public centers and 10 percent -- 10 percent -- of its households connected. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency, which tracks progress against SDG 7, defines energy access as 50 kilowatt hours per person per year. That's enough to power some light bulbs and charge a phone, perhaps run a low-watt TV or fan for a few hours a day. Now, providing entry-level access is an important first step, but let's not romanticize the situation. By any standard, a few lights and not much else is still living in energy poverty. And what's more, these energy poverty indicators and targets cover only residential use. And yet, households account for just about one quarter of the world's electricity consumption. That's because most of our power is used in industries and for commerce.

但是，一家住戶何時能被視作“通電” 的評判標準并不明確。 舉個例子，印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪 在去年宣布，印度境內(nèi) 全部村莊都通了電， 而電氣化的標準是 每個村莊配備一座變電站， 加上它的公共中心， 和百分之十——沒錯， 百分之十——的居民能夠通電。 與此同時， 負責跟蹤 SDG 7 進度的國際能源署 將能源獲取的標準定義為 每人每年 50 度電。 50 度電足夠點亮幾盞燈泡， 給一臺手機充電， 大概每天也能讓 低功耗電視或者風扇運行幾個小時。 提供入門級別的電力獲取 是重要的第一步， 但是我們還是不要 過于美化這種狀況。 無論以何種標準來看， 如果只能點亮幾盞燈， 仍然相當于生活在能源貧困之中。 更有甚者， 這些能源貧困的指標與目標 涵蓋的僅僅是居民用電。 然而，居家用電僅占世界耗電總量 的四分之一。 這是因為我們大部分的電力 都用在工業(yè)與商貿(mào)上。

05:57

Which brings me to my main point: countries cannot grow out of poverty without access to abundant, affordable and reliable electricity to power these productive centers, or what I call "Energy for Growth." As you can see from this graph, there's simply no such thing as a low-energy, high-income country. It doesn't exist. And yet, three billion people in the world currently live in countries without reliable, affordable electricity -- not just to power their homes but also their factories, their office buildings, their data centers and other economic activities. Merely electrifying households and microenterprises cannot solve this deeper energy poverty. To solve energy poverty, we need to deliver reliable, affordable electricity at scale, to power economy-wide job creation and income growth.

這也引出了我的主要論點： 國家想要脫離貧困， 不能沒有能驅動各個生產(chǎn)中心 的豐富的、廉價的、可靠的電力， 我將其稱為“發(fā)展用能源”。 從這幅圖表可以看出， 根本沒有所謂的 低能耗、高收入國家。 這種國家并不存在。 然而，世界上有 30 億人口 目前居住的國家缺乏 可靠的、廉價的電力—— 他們不僅無法為家里供電， 也無法為工廠， 辦公樓，數(shù)據(jù)中心， 以及其他經(jīng)濟活動 提供電力支持。 僅僅為家庭和 微型企業(yè)供電根本無法解決 這個更深層的能源貧困問題。 為了解決能源貧困問題， 我們需要大規(guī)模地輸送 可靠的、廉價的電力， 從而為整個社會工作崗位的創(chuàng)造 與收入增長提供動力。

06:47

This need, however, bumps against an emerging narrative that, faced with climate change, we all need to transition from large, centralized power systems to small-scale distributed power. The growth of off-grid solar in Africa -- and let me repeat, off-grid solar is a good thing -- but that growth fits nicely into this narrative and has led to those claims that Africa is leapfrogging the old ways of energy and building its power system from the ground up, one solar panel at a time.

但是，這個需求卻和 一個漸漸浮現(xiàn)的觀點產(chǎn)生了矛盾。 這個觀點聲稱， 面對當今的氣候變化， 我們都需要實現(xiàn) 從大型、集中式能源系統(tǒng) 到小型、分散式能源的轉型。 非洲的離網(wǎng)太陽能正在發(fā)展—— 我重申一次， 離網(wǎng)太陽能是好東西—— 但是這種發(fā)展很好地 契合了這一觀點， 從而導致有人聲稱，非洲正在繞過 傳統(tǒng)能源范式進行跨越式發(fā)展， 從零開始、一塊一塊太陽能板地 打造自己的能源系統(tǒng)。

07:16

It's a nice, solicitous narrative, but also quite naïve. Like many narratives of technological disruption, often inspired by Silicon Valley, it takes for granted the existing systems that underpin all of this transformation. You see, when it comes to innovating and energy, the West is working around the edges of a system that is tried and tested. And so all the sexy stuff -- the rooftop solar, the smart household devices, the electric vehicles -- all of this is built on top of a massive and absolutely essential grid, which itself exists within a proven governance framework. Even the most advanced countries in the world don't have an example of an energy system that is all edges and no center at scale.

這是一個好聽的、誘人的說法， 但同時也很天真。 這個說法和很多 關于受硅谷啟發(fā)所誕生 的顛覆性科技的敘述一樣， 這種說法同樣認為，作為這些轉型的基礎， 這些現(xiàn)有系統(tǒng)的存在是理所當然的。 當談到創(chuàng)新與能源時， 西方正在研究一個嘗試過 和測試過的體系的邊緣。 所有那些吸引眼球的東西—— 屋頂太陽能電池， 智能居家設備，電動汽車—— 這些都建立在一張龐大的、 至關重要的電網(wǎng)之上， 這張電網(wǎng)本身也置身于一個 經(jīng)過證明的管理框架之中。 即使是世界上最先進的國家， 也沒有一個只有邊緣、沒有中心的 大型能源系統(tǒng)的案例。

08:03

So ultimately, no approach -- be it centralized or distributed, renewable or fossil-based -- can succeed in solving energy poverty without finding a way to deliver reliable, affordable electricity to Africa's emerging industrial and commercial sectors. So, it's not just lights in every rural home. It's power for Africa's cities that are growing fast and increasingly full of young, capable people in desperate need of a job. This in turn will require significant interconnectivity and economies of scale, making a robust and modern grid a crucial piece of any energy poverty solution.

歸根結底， 不管是集中式還是分散式系統(tǒng)、 可再生還是化石能源， 如果找不到方法將 可靠、廉價的電力 輸送到非洲萌芽的工業(yè)與商業(yè)領域， 非洲的能源貧困依然無解。 所以，我們并不只是要 點亮每一戶農(nóng)村家庭。 我們要為非洲 快速發(fā)展的城市提供能源， 這些城市愈發(fā)充斥著 年輕有為的人們， 他們迫切需要工作。 這進而又需要強大的互聯(lián) 以及規(guī)模經(jīng)濟， 使得穩(wěn)定而現(xiàn)代化的電網(wǎng) 成為任何能源貧困解決方案 不可或缺的一部分。

08:43

So, our second mistake is falling for the allure of the quick fix. You see, energy poverty exists within a complex socioeconomic and political context. And part of the appeal of new electrification models such as off-grid solar, for example, is they can often bypass the glacial pace and inefficiency of government. See, with small systems you can skip the bureaucracies and the utilities and sell directly to customers. But to confront energy poverty, you cannot ignore governments, you cannot ignore institutions, you cannot ignore the many players involved in making, moving and using electricity at scale, which is a way to say that when it comes to providing energy for growth, it's not just about innovating the technology, it's about the slow and hard work of improving governance, institutions and the broader macroenvironment.

我們的第二個錯誤是， 盲目相信快速解決方案。 能源貧困是存在于 一個復雜的社會經(jīng)濟 與政治背景下的。 諸如離網(wǎng)太陽能之類的 新型電氣化模型的 一部分吸引力在于， 它們大多能繞過 政府的滯緩節(jié)奏與低下效能。 要是使用小型系統(tǒng)， 你就能跳過官僚機構與程序， 直接與顧客進行交易。 但是要想攻克能源貧困， 你不能忽略政府， 你不能忽略制度， 你不能忽略大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)、 傳輸和使用電力時 涉及到的多方參與者。 換句話說， 當我們要為發(fā)展供能時， 我們不僅僅要考慮科技上的革新， 還要面對改善治理、制度 與更廣闊的宏觀環(huán)境時 所要付出的漫長與艱苦的努力。

09:37

OK, so this is all good and nice, you say. But what about climate change? How do we ensure a high-energy future for everyone while also curbing our emissions? Well, we'll have to make some complex tradeoffs, but I believe that a high-energy future for Africa is not mutually exclusive to a low-carbon future. And make no mistake: the world cannot expect Africa to remain in energy poverty because of climate change.

你可能會說， 這一切聽上去都很棒。 但關于氣候變化又該怎么辦？ 我們?nèi)绾未_保在未來， 每個人都享有充足能源 的同時減少排放？ 我們必須要做出一些復雜的妥協(xié)， 但我相信，對非洲來說 一個能源充足的未來 和一個低碳的未來并不矛盾。 毫無疑問： 世界不能指望非洲 因為氣候變化 就一直陷于能源貧困之中。

10:04

(Applause)

（掌聲）

10:11

Actually, the facts show that the opposite is true. Energy will be essential for Africa to adapt to climate change and build resilience. You see, rising temperatures will mean increased demand for space cooling and cold storage. Declining water tables will mean increased pumped irrigation. And extreme weather and rising sea levels will require a significant expansion and reinforcement of our infrastructure. These are all energy-intensive activities. So balancing climate change and Africa's pressing need to transition to a high-energy future will be tough. But doing so is nonnegotiable; we will have to find a way. The first step is broadening the terms of the debate away from this either-or framing. And we also must stop romanticizing solutions that distract us from the core challenges.

實際上，事實表明， 情況恰好相反。 能源對于非洲適應環(huán)境變化、 提高抵御能力 有至關重要的作用。 氣溫升高意味著 對于制冷和冷藏 的需求增加。 地下水減少意味著 抽水灌溉增加。 極端的天氣與上升的海平面 將要求我們大幅擴建 以及加固我們的基礎設施。 這些都是高能耗的作業(yè)。 因此，在氣候變化 和非洲向能源充足的未來 轉化的迫切需求之間尋找平衡， 將會十分艱巨。 但是否要這樣做也是不容磋商的； 我們必須找到辦法。 第一步是拓寬辯論的視角， 從這種非此即彼 的局限中解放出來。 另外，一些解決方案會轉移 我們對核心挑戰(zhàn)的注意力， 我們也必須停止 對這些方案的美化。

11:01

And let's not also forget that Africa is endowed with vast natural resources, including significant renewable potential. For example, in Kenya, where I'm from, geothermal power accounts for half of our electricity generation, and with hydro being the other major source, we are already mainly powered by renewable energy. We also just brought online Africa's largest wind farm and East Africa's biggest solar facility.

我們也不能忘記， 非洲擁有得天獨厚的豐富自然資源， 其中包含了可觀的可再生潛能。 比如說，在我的祖國肯尼亞， 有一半的電能來源于地熱能， 而水能則是另一個主要電力來源， 所以我們的主要電力來源 已經(jīng)是可再生能源了。 我們也剛剛開始運行 非洲最大的風力發(fā)電廠， 以及東非最大的太陽能發(fā)電設施。

11:26

(Applause)

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11:30

In addition, new technology means that we can now run and design our power systems and use energy more efficiently than ever, doing more with less. Energy efficiency will be an important tool in the fight against climate change.

此外， 新的技術也意味著 我們現(xiàn)在可以以更高的效率 運行和設計我們的能源系統(tǒng) 以及使用我們的能源， 達到事半功倍的效果。 能源效率將會是 我們與氣候變化 作斗爭的重要工具。

11:46

So in closing, I'd just like to say that Africa is a real place with real people, navigating complex challenges and major transitions, just like any other region of the world.

那么在最后，我想說的是， 非洲是一個真實的地方，有真實的人民， 她正在應對復雜的挑戰(zhàn)和重大的轉變， 正如世界任何其他地方一樣。

11:56

(Applause)

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12:02

And while each country and each region has its social, economic and political quirks, the physics of electricity are the same everywhere.

雖然每個國家、每個地區(qū) 都有其獨有的社會、經(jīng)濟 與政治特色， 電力的物理原理 在任何地方都是不變的。

12:10

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑聲）（掌聲）

12:14

And the energy needs of our economies are just as intensive as those of any other economy.

而我們的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對能源的需求 和任何其它經(jīng)濟體一樣強烈。

12:21

So, the expansion of household electrification through a mix of on- and off-grid solutions has had an incredible impact in Africa. But they are nowhere near sufficient for solving energy poverty. To solve energy poverty, we need generation of electricity from diverse sources at scale and modern grids to power a high-energy future, in which Africans can enjoy modern living standards and well-paying jobs. Africans deserve this, and with one of every four people in the world projected to be African by the year 2100, the planet needs it.

家庭電氣化的普及 通過網(wǎng)內(nèi)外解決方案的組合 對非洲起到了難以置信的影響。 但它們還遠遠不足以 解決能源貧困的難題。 要想克服能源貧困， 我們需要大規(guī)模、多樣化的發(fā)電來源 和現(xiàn)代化的電網(wǎng)， 為能量充足的未來提供動力， 讓非洲人享受現(xiàn)代生活水平 和高薪工作。 非洲值得擁有這些； 而到了 2100 年時， 世界上每四個人中 將有一人來自非洲， 屆時，我們的星球也需要它。

12:54

Thank you.

謝謝。

12:55

(Applause)

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