演講MP3+雙語文稿:西方如何適應(yīng)崛起的亞洲

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【演講者及介紹】

作者、外交官、學(xué)者基肖爾·馬布巴尼(Kishore Mahbubani)，通過他的著作、外交工作和研究，從不斷崛起的亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體的視角，重新描繪了全球權(quán)力動(dòng)態(tài)。

【演講主題】西方如何適應(yīng)崛起的亞洲

【中英文字幕】

翻譯者 psjmz mz 校對(duì)者 YolandaZhang

00:00

About 200 years ago, Napoleon famouslywarned ... He said, "Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shakethe world." Despite this early warning, the West chose to go to sleep atprecisely the moment when China and India and the rest of Asia woke up. Why didthis happen? I'm here to address this great mystery.

大約兩百年前，拿破侖有一句非常著名的警示語，他說，“讓中國沉睡吧，一旦她醒了，她將震撼整個(gè)世界?！彪m然有這個(gè)很早的警告，西方卻恰恰在中國、印度和其它亞洲國家蘇醒的時(shí)候選擇沉睡。為什么會(huì)發(fā)生這樣的事情？我來為大家解開這個(gè)謎團(tuán)。

00:39

Now what do I mean when I say the Westchose to go to sleep? Here I'm referring to the failure of the West to reactintelligently and thoughtfully to a new world environment that's obviously beencreated by the return of Asia. As a friend of the West I feel anguished bythis, so my goal to today is to try to help the West. But I have to begin thestory first by talking about how the West actually woke up the rest of theworld.

當(dāng)我說西方選擇沉睡是什么意思呢？這里我指的是，西方在明智和周到地應(yīng)對(duì)亞洲回歸時(shí)所建立的一個(gè)新世界環(huán)境時(shí)所面臨的失敗。所以我今天的目的，就是試著來幫助西方。但是首先，我需要講一個(gè)故事，這個(gè)故事是講述西方如何使這個(gè)世界其他國家蘇醒的。

01:14

Look at chart one. From the year onethrough the year 1820, the two largest economies of the world were always thoseof China and India. So it's only in the last 200 years that Europe took off,followed by North America. So the past 200 years of world history havetherefore been a major historical aberration. All aberrations come to a naturalend and this is what we are seeing. And if you look at chart two, you'll seehow quickly and how forcefully China and India are coming back.

請(qǐng)看圖一。從第一年，到1820年，世界上兩個(gè)最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體一直都是中國和印度。所以只有過去的200年由歐洲獲得了第一名，北美緊隨其后。所以過去200年的世界歷史成為了一個(gè)重要的歷史偏差。所有的偏差最后終會(huì)走到一個(gè)自然的結(jié)局，就是我們現(xiàn)在看到的。如果你看一下圖表二，你將會(huì)看到中國和印度將會(huì)多么快速和多么強(qiáng)有力地回歸。

02:06

The big question is: Who woke up China andIndia? The only honest answer to this question is that it was Westerncivilization that did so. We all know that the West was the first tosuccessfully modernize, transform itself; initially it used its power tocolonize and dominate the world. But over time, it shared the gifts of Westernwisdom with the rest of the world.

最大的問題是：誰使中國和印度蘇醒了？唯一坦誠的答案是，西方文明使它們蘇醒了。我們都知道西方是第一個(gè)成功現(xiàn)代化和轉(zhuǎn)型的群體；最初它使用自己的力量殖民統(tǒng)治世界。但是隨著時(shí)間流逝，它與世界上的其它國家分享了西方智慧的饋贈(zèng)。

02:36

Let me add here that I have personallybenefited from the sharing of Western wisdom. When I was born in Singapore,which was then a poor British colony, in 1948, I experienced, likethree-quarters of humanity then, extreme poverty. Indeed, on the first day whenI went to school at the age of six, I was put in a special feeding programbecause I was technically undernourished. Now as you can see I'm overnourished.

請(qǐng)讓我在這里加入一點(diǎn)我作為個(gè)人收到的來自分享西方智慧的饋贈(zèng)。當(dāng)我出生在新加坡時(shí)，那時(shí)新加坡還只是一個(gè)貧窮的英國殖民地。在1948年，就像世界上四分之三的人類那樣，我也經(jīng)歷了極度的貧窮。事實(shí)上，當(dāng)我在6歲第一次走進(jìn)學(xué)校時(shí)，參加了一個(gè)特殊營養(yǎng)計(jì)劃，因?yàn)槲覡I養(yǎng)不良?，F(xiàn)在你們看，我是營養(yǎng)過剩了。

03:09

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

03:11

But the greatest gift I got was that ofWestern education. Now since I've personally traveled this journey from thirdworld poverty to a comfortable middle-class existence, I can speak with greatconviction about the impact of Western wisdom and the sharing of Western wisdomwith the world. And one particular gift that the West shared was the art ofreasoning. Now reasoning was not invented by the West. It's inherent in allcultures and civilizations. Amartya Sen has described how deeply embedded it isin Indian civilization. Yet there's also no doubt that it was the West thatcarried the art of reasoning to a much higher level. And through the ScientificRevolution, the Enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution, the West reallyraised it forcefully, and equally importantly used this, applied it to solvemany major practical problems. And the West then shared this art of appliedreasoning with the rest of the world, and I can tell you that it led to what Icall three silent revolutions. And as an Asian, I can describe how these silentrevolutions transformed Asia.

但是我收到的最棒的禮物是西方教育。自從我自己進(jìn)行了這場旅行，從貧窮的第三世界國家到一個(gè)舒適的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)生活，我可以用堅(jiān)定的口吻來講述西方智慧的影響和西方智慧與世界做的分享。其中一個(gè)特別的饋贈(zèng)是，西方分享了推理的藝術(shù)。推理不是西方創(chuàng)造的。它是所有的文化和文明與生俱來的。Amartya Sen描述過推理是如何深深的扎根在印度文明里。但是無可否認(rèn)的是，是西方將推理的藝術(shù)帶向了更高的層次。并且通過科學(xué)革命，啟蒙運(yùn)動(dòng)，工業(yè)革命，西方強(qiáng)有力地崛起，同樣重要的是，應(yīng)用它來解決許多重要的實(shí)際問題。然后西方與世界其他地區(qū)分享了應(yīng)用推理的藝術(shù)，并且我可以告訴你們，它引起了我所謂的“三次沉默革命”。作為一名亞洲人，我可以描述這些沉默革命是如何讓亞洲轉(zhuǎn)變的。

04:48

The first revolution was in economics. Themain reason why so many Asian economies, including the communist societies ofChina and Vietnam, have performed so spectacularly well in economicdevelopment, is because they finally understood, absorbed and are implementingfree market economics -- a gift from the West. Adam Smith was right. If you letmarkets decide, productivity goes up.

第一個(gè)革命是在經(jīng)濟(jì)方面。亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體，包括社會(huì)主義國家在內(nèi)的中國和越南，能夠有著表現(xiàn)如此驚人的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的原因，是因?yàn)樗麄冏罱K完全理解、吸收并且執(zhí)行了自由市場經(jīng)濟(jì)——一個(gè)來自西方的饋贈(zèng)。亞當(dāng)·密斯是對(duì)的。如果你讓市場來主導(dǎo)，生產(chǎn)力就會(huì)提升。

05:23

The second gift was psychological. Here tooI can speak from personal experience. When I was young, my mother and hergeneration believed that life was determined by fate. You couldn't do anythingabout it. My generation and the generation of Asians after me, believe that wecan take charge and we can improve our lives. And this may explain, forexample, the spike of entrepreneurship you see all throughout Asia today.

第二個(gè)饋贈(zèng)是心理學(xué)。這里我同樣可以通過我自身的經(jīng)歷來講述。在我年幼的時(shí)候，我的母親和她那一代人都相信，人的命運(yùn)是注定的，你無法反抗你的命運(yùn)。我那個(gè)年代和我之后年代的亞洲人，則相信我們可以主導(dǎo)命運(yùn)并且我們可以改善自己的生活。這或許可以解釋，比如，如今在整個(gè)亞洲隨處可見的突增的創(chuàng)業(yè)數(shù)量。

06:01

And if you travel through Asia today, youwill also see the results of the third revolution: the revolution of goodgovernance. Now as a result of good governance -- travel in Asia, you seebetter health care, better education, better infrastructure, better publicpolicies. It's a different world.

現(xiàn)在如果你在亞洲旅游，你同樣將會(huì)看到第三個(gè)革命的結(jié)果：一個(gè)優(yōu)質(zhì)治理的革命。由于一個(gè)優(yōu)質(zhì)的治理——在亞洲周游，你會(huì)看到更好的醫(yī)療，更好的教育，更完善的基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)，更人性化的公共政策。它是一個(gè)不同的世界。

06:30

Now having transformed the world throughthe sharing of Western wisdom with the rest of the world, the logical andrational response of the West should have been to say, "Hey, we have toadjust and adapt to this new world." Instead, the West chose to go tosleep. Why did it happen? I believe it happened because the West becamedistracted with two major events. The first event was the end of the Cold War.Yes, the end of the Cold War was a great victory. The West defeated the mightySoviet Union without firing a shot. Amazing. But you know, when you have agreat victory like this, it also leads to arrogance and hubris. And this hubriswas best captured in a very famous essay by Francis Fukuyama called "TheEnd of History?" Now, Fukuyama was putting across a very sophisticatedmessage, but all that the West heard from this essay was that we, the liberal democracies,we have succeeded, we don't have to change, we don't have to adapt, it's onlythe rest of the world that has to change and adapt. Unfortunately, like adangerous opiate, this essay did a lot of brain damage to the West because itput them to sleep just at precisely the moment when China and India were wakingup and the West didn't adjust and adapt.

現(xiàn)在亞洲已經(jīng)通過與世界其它區(qū)域共享西方智慧，改變了世界，西方有邏輯的理性回答應(yīng)當(dāng)是“嘿，我們不得不調(diào)整自己去適應(yīng)這個(gè)新的世界。”相反，西方選擇沉睡。為什么會(huì)這樣呢？我相信它發(fā)生 是因?yàn)槲鞣奖粌蓚€(gè)重要的事件分心了。第一個(gè)事件是冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束。是的，冷戰(zhàn)的結(jié)束是一個(gè)偉大的勝利。西方不費(fèi)一個(gè)子彈就打敗了強(qiáng)大的蘇聯(lián)。不可思議。但是要知道，當(dāng)你有了一個(gè)這么偉大的勝利，也同樣導(dǎo)致了自大和傲慢。這種自大也被作家福山一篇非常著名的論文《歷史的結(jié)束》完美的詮釋了。福山傳遞了一條非常復(fù)雜的信息，但是西方從這篇論文里獲得的所有信息 就是我們，自由民主國家，我們勝利了，我們不需要改變，我們也不需要去適應(yīng)，世界其它區(qū)域需要來改變和適應(yīng)我們。不幸的是，就像危險(xiǎn)的鴉片，這篇論文確實(shí)對(duì)西方造成了大量的大腦損傷，因?yàn)檫@讓它們選擇沉睡，恰好在中國和印度蘇醒時(shí)，而西方并沒有調(diào)整適應(yīng)。

08:25

The second major event was 9/11, whichhappened in 2001. And as we know, 9/11 caused a lot of shock and grief. Ipersonally experienced the shock and grief because I was in Manhattan when 9/11happened. 9/11 also generated a lot of anger, and in this anger, the UnitedStates decided to invade Afghanistan and later, Iraq. And unfortunately, partlyas a result of this anger, the West didn't notice the significance of anotherevent that happened also in 2001. China joined the World Trade Organization.

第二個(gè)重要事件是發(fā)生于2001年的9/11恐怖襲擊。眾所周知，9/11引起了巨大的震驚和悲痛。我個(gè)人也經(jīng)歷了這樣的震驚和悲痛，因?yàn)楫?dāng)天我就在曼哈頓。9/11同樣也引發(fā)了眾怒，然后在這樣的憤怒中，美國決定侵略阿富汗，以及隨后的伊拉克。不幸的是，這種憤怒帶來的一部分結(jié)果就是，西方?jīng)]有注意到另外一個(gè)同樣發(fā)生在2001年的重要事件。中國加入了世界貿(mào)易組織。

09:21

Now, when you suddenly inject 900 millionnew workers into the global capitalist system, it would naturally lead to whatthe economist Joseph Schumpeter called creative destruction. Western workerslost their jobs, they saw their incomes stagnate, clearly people had to thinkabout new competitive policies, workers needed retraining, workers needed newskills. None of this was done. So partly as a result of this, the United Statesof America became the only major developed society where the average income ofthe bottom 50 percent -- yes, 50 percent -- average income went down over a30-year period, from 1980 to 2010. So partly, as a result of this, it ledeventually to the election of Donald Trump in 2016, who exploited the anger ofthe working classes, who are predominantly white. It also contributed to the riseof populism in Europe. And one wonders, could this populism have been avoidedif the West had not been distracted by the end of the Cold War and by 9/11?

當(dāng)你突然向全球資本系統(tǒng)注入 9億名新的勞動(dòng)力，這自然地就引發(fā)了被經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約瑟夫·熊彼特稱之為的“創(chuàng)造性破壞”。西方的工人們失去了工作，眼睜睜看著他們的收入停滯，顯然人們不得不思考新的競爭策略，工人需要重新培訓(xùn)，需要新的技能。對(duì)此，國家沒有采取任何行動(dòng)。所以部分出于這個(gè)原因，美國成為了唯一一個(gè)主要發(fā)達(dá)社會(huì)中底層50%的平均收入——是的，50%的——平均收入在1980年到2010年的30年間下降了的國家。所以部分由于這個(gè)原因，最終導(dǎo)致了在2016年 Donald Trump的當(dāng)選，他利用了工人階層的憤怒，這些人信奉白人至上主義。這也促成了歐洲民粹主義的崛起。

10:51

有人可能疑惑，如果西方?jīng)]有被冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束和9/11轉(zhuǎn)移注意力，是不是民粹主義就可以被避免？

11:02

But the big question we face today is this:Is it too late? Has the West lost everything? And my answer is that it's nottoo late. It is possible for the West to recover and come back in strength. Andusing the Western art of reasoning, I would recommend that the West adopt a new"three-m" strategy: minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian.

但是目前我們面對(duì)的最大的問題是： 現(xiàn)在是不是太晚了？ 西方已經(jīng)失去了一切了嗎？ 我的答案則是還不算太晚。西方恢復(fù)并回到強(qiáng)盛時(shí)期 是有可能的。利用西方的推理藝術(shù)，我會(huì)推薦西方采用一個(gè)新“3M”策略：極簡主義，多邊主義和馬基雅弗利主義。

11:37

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

11:38

Why minimalist? Now even though Westerndomination has ended, the West continues to intervene and interfere in theaffairs of many other societies. This is unwise. This is generating anger andresentment, especially in Islamic societies. It's also draining the resourcesand spirits of Western societies. Now I know that the Islamic world is havingdifficulties modernizing. It will have to find its way, but it's more likely todo so if it is left alone to do so. Now I can say this with some convictionbecause I come from a region, Southeast Asia, which has almost as many Muslimsas the Arab world. 266 million Muslims. Southeast Asia is also one of the mostdiverse continents on planet earth, because you also have 146 millionChristians, 149 million Buddhists -- Mahayana Buddhists and Hinayana Buddhists-- and you also have millions of Taoists and Confucianists and Hindus and evencommunists. And once known as "the Balkans of Asia," southeast Asiatoday should be experiencing a clash of civilizations. Instead, what you see insoutheast Asia is one of the most peaceful and prosperous corners of planetearth with the second-most successful regional multilateral organization,ASEAN. So clearly, minimalism can work. The West should try it out.

為什么是極簡主義？盡管西方統(tǒng)治時(shí)期已經(jīng)結(jié)束，西方仍然插手和干預(yù)了多國內(nèi)政。這是不明智的。這引發(fā)了憤怒和怨恨，尤其是穆斯林社會(huì)。這同樣也在消耗西方社會(huì)的資源和精神。我知道現(xiàn)在穆斯林世界面臨著現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程的困難。它會(huì)找到自己的路，但是如果讓它獨(dú)立發(fā)展會(huì)更有可能成功。我能夠有信心的說這句話, 是因?yàn)槲襾碜詵|南亞地區(qū)，那里有著和阿拉伯世界同樣數(shù)量的穆斯林。2.66億穆斯林。東南亞是這個(gè)地球上最多樣化的地區(qū)之一，因?yàn)槟抢镞€有1.46億基督徒，1.49億佛教徒——大乘佛教徒和小乘佛教徒——并且還有數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的道教，儒家和印度教徒，甚至共產(chǎn)黨員。這里曾經(jīng)被稱為“亞洲巴爾干半島”，現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該正在經(jīng)歷文明沖突。相反，你在東南亞看到的是這個(gè)地球最和平和繁榮的角落之一，有著第二大成功的地區(qū)性多邊組織，東盟。很明顯，極簡主義是可行的。西方應(yīng)該試一下。

13:16

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

13:18

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

13:23

But I'm also aware that minimalism cannotsolve all the problems. There are some hard problems that have to be dealtwith: Al-Qaeda, ISIS -- they remain dangerous threats. They must be found, theymust be destroyed. The question is, is it wise for the West, which represents12 percent of the world's population -- yes, 12 percent -- to fight thesethreats on its own or to fight with the remaining 88 percent of the world'spopulation? And the logical and rational answer is that you should work withthe remaining 88 percent.

但是我也意識(shí)到極簡主義并不能解決所有問題。有一些很困難的問題需要被處理——基地組織，ISIS——它們?nèi)匀皇俏ｋU(xiǎn)的威脅。它必須得被發(fā)現(xiàn)，必須被摧毀。問題是，這對(duì)西方是否明智，西方只占全球人口的12%——是的，12%——西方是獨(dú)自與這些威脅斗爭還是與剩下88%的全球人口共同戰(zhàn)斗？符合邏輯和理性的答案是，你應(yīng)該和剩下的88%一起戰(zhàn)斗。

13:59

Now where does one go if you want to getthe support of humanity? There's only one place: the United Nations. Now I'vebeen ambassador to the UN twice. Maybe that makes me a bit biased, but I cantell you that working with the UN can lead to success. Why is it that the firstIraq war, fought by President George H. W. Bush, succeeded? While the secondIraq war, fought by his son, President George W. Bush, failed? One key reasonis that the senior Bush went to the UN to get the support of the globalcommunity before fighting the war in Iraq. So multilateralism works. There'sanother reason why we have to work with the UN. The world is shrinking. We arebecoming a small, interdependent, global village. All villages need villagecouncils. And the only global village counsel we have, as the late UNSecretary-General Kofi Annan said, is the UN.

現(xiàn)在如果你想獲得人類的支持，你應(yīng)該去哪里呢？只有一個(gè)地方： 聯(lián)合國。我曾兩次擔(dān)任駐聯(lián)合國大使?？赡苓@會(huì)讓我?guī)c(diǎn)偏見，但我可以告訴你們跟聯(lián)合國合作可以通往成功。為什么喬治·H·W·布什發(fā)動(dòng)的第一次伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭會(huì)取得成功？ 而由他的兒子喬治·W ·布什發(fā)動(dòng)的第二次伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭 會(huì)失敗？ 一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的原因在于，老布什在發(fā)動(dòng)伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭前，曾來到聯(lián)合國尋找全球群體的支持。所以多邊主義獲得了成功。還有另一個(gè)我們?yōu)槭裁幢仨毢吐?lián)合國合作的理由。世界在縮小。我們正在成為一個(gè)小的，相互依存的地球村。所有的村子都需要村委會(huì)。而我們唯一擁有的全球村委會(huì)，正如已故聯(lián)合國秘書長科菲·安南所說，是聯(lián)合國。

15:06

Now as a geopolitical analyst, I do knowthat it's often considered naive to work with the UN. So now let me inject myMachiavellian point. Now Machiavelli is a figure who's often derided in theWest, but the liberal philosopher Isaiah Berlin reminded us that the goal ofMachiavelli was to promote virtue, not evil. So what is the Machiavellianpoint? It's this: what is the best way for the West to constrain the new risingpowers that are emerging? And the answer is that the best way to constrain themis through multilateral rules and multilateral norms, multilateral institutionsand multilateral processes.

作為一個(gè)地緣政治分析家，我確實(shí)知道人們通常認(rèn)為和聯(lián)合國合作是幼稚的。那么現(xiàn)在讓我把馬基雅維利式的觀點(diǎn)插進(jìn)去。馬基雅維利是一個(gè)經(jīng)常被西方嘲笑的人物，但自由派哲學(xué)家以賽亞?伯林提醒我們，馬基雅維利的目標(biāo)是宣揚(yáng)美德，而不是邪惡。那么馬基雅維利的觀點(diǎn)是什么？對(duì)于西方來說，約束正在崛起的新興大國的最佳方式是什么？答案是，約束他們的最好方式是通過多邊規(guī)則和多邊規(guī)范、多邊機(jī)構(gòu)和多邊流程。

16:08

Now let me conclude with one final, bigmessage. As a longtime friend of the West, I'm acutely aware of how pessimisticWestern societies have become. Many in the West don't believe that a greatfuture lies ahead for them, that their children will not have better lives. Soplease do not fear the future or the rest of the world. Now I can say this withsome conviction, because as a Hindu Sindhi, I actually feel a direct culturalconnection with society's diverse cultures and societies all the way fromTehran to Tokyo. And more than half of humanity lives in this space, so withthis direct cultural connection, I can say with great conviction that if theWest chooses to adopt a wiser strategy of being minimalist, multilateral andMachiavellian, the rest of the world will be happy to work with the West. So agreat future lies ahead for humanity. Let's embrace it together.

現(xiàn)在讓我用最后一句重要的信息來總結(jié)一下。作為一個(gè)西方世界的老朋友，我敏銳地意識(shí)到西方世界已經(jīng)變得多么悲觀。在西方世界的很多人不相信前面還有美好的未來，他們的孩子不會(huì)有更好的生活。所以請(qǐng)不要害怕未來，或害怕世界其他國家。我可以滿懷信心地說，因?yàn)樽鳛橐粋€(gè)印度信德人，從德黑蘭到東京，我都能切實(shí)感受到與社會(huì)多元文化和群體的直接文化聯(lián)系。地球上超過一半的人生活在這個(gè)空間中，所以通過這種直接的文化聯(lián)系，我可以滿懷信心地說，如果西方選擇采取一種更明智的策略，成為極簡主義者、多邊主義者和馬基雅維利主義者，世界其他國家將樂于與西方世界合作。那么，人類的美好未來就在前方。讓我們共同擁抱它。

17:35

Thank you.

謝謝

17:36

(Applause)

（鼓掌）