演講MP3+雙語文稿:氣候病全球蔓延，急救藥物真的有效嗎？

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【演講人】Kelly Wanser

【演講主題】《氣候病全球蔓延，急救藥物真的有效嗎？》

【演講文稿-中英文】

翻譯者 psjmz mz 校對(duì) Yanyan Hong

I'm here to talk to you about something important that may be new to you. The governments of the world are about to conduct an unintentional experiment on our climate. In 2020, new rules will require ships to lower their sulfur emissions by scrubbing their dirty exhaust or switching to cleaner fuels. For human health, this is really good, but sulfur particles in the emission of ships also have an effect on clouds. This is a satellite image of marine clouds off the Pacific West Coast of the United States. The streaks in the clouds are created by the exhaust from ships. Ships' emissions include both greenhouse gases, which trap heat over long periods of time, and particulates like sulfates that mix with clouds and temporarily make them brighter. Brighter clouds reflect more sunlight back to space, cooling the climate. So in fact, humans are currently running two unintentional experiments on our climate.

今天，我要給各位分享一些 你們或許沒聽過，卻至關(guān)重要的事情。 世界各國政府 將要對(duì)我們的氣候做一個(gè) 無意的實(shí)驗(yàn)。 2020 年，出臺(tái)了一些新規(guī)定， 要求船舶能夠處理廢氣， 或改用更清潔的燃料 來降低硫的排放。 對(duì)人類健康而言，這是好事， 但船舶中的硫粒子排放 也會(huì)對(duì)云層產(chǎn)生影響。 這是美國太平洋西海岸 的海洋云層的衛(wèi)星圖像。 云層中的條紋是由船只 排出的廢氣造成的。 船舶的排放氣體包括溫室氣體， 這些氣體會(huì)不斷積聚熱量， 而硫酸鹽等微粒與云層混合后， 會(huì)暫時(shí)使云層變亮。 明亮的云層會(huì)把更多的 太陽光反射回太空， 降低溫度。 所以，事實(shí)上， 人類是在對(duì)我們的氣候進(jìn)行 兩種無意的實(shí)驗(yàn)。

In the first one, we're increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases and gradually warming the earth system. This works something like a fever in the human body. If the fever remains low, its effects are mild, but as the fever rises, damage grows more severe and eventually devastating. We're seeing a little of this now.

第一個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)，我們?cè)谥饾u 增加溫室氣體的濃度， 慢慢導(dǎo)致全球氣候變暖， 這個(gè)過程有點(diǎn)像人體的發(fā)燒。 如果發(fā)燒的溫度比較低， 它的危害還不是很大， 但如果發(fā)燒的溫度升高了， 會(huì)帶來很大的危害， 并最終導(dǎo)致十分嚴(yán)重的后果。 我們現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)看到了一些這樣的情況。

In our other experiment, we're planning to remove a layer of particles that brighten clouds and shield us from some of this warming. The effect is strongest in ocean clouds like these, and scientists expect the reduction of sulfur emissions from ships next year to produce a measurable increase in global warming.

在我們另一個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)中， 我們正計(jì)劃移除一層粒子， 使云層變亮，并保護(hù)我們 免受氣候變暖的影響。 像這種效應(yīng)在海洋云層中最強(qiáng)， 科學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)明年船舶 硫排放量的減少， 將會(huì)導(dǎo)致可測(cè)量的全球氣候變暖。

Bit of a shocker? In fact, most emissions contain sulfates that brighten clouds: coal, diesel exhaust, forest fires. Scientists estimate that the total cooling effect from emission particles, which they call aerosols when they're in the climate, may be as much as all of the warming we've experienced up until now. There's a lot of uncertainty around this effect, and it's one of the major reasons why we have difficulty predicting climate, but this is cooling that we'll lose as emissions fall. So to be clear, humans are currently cooling the planet by dispersing particles into the atmosphere at massive scale. We just don't know how much, and we're doing it accidentally. That's worrying, but it could mean that we have a fast-acting way to reduce warming, emergency medicine for our climate fever if we needed it, and it's a medicine with origins in nature.

讓人有些震驚吧？ 實(shí)際上，很多包含硫的排放物 都可以使云層變亮： 煤，柴油廢氣，森林火災(zāi)。 科學(xué)家估計(jì)，來自 排放粒子的總冷卻效應(yīng) （這些粒子在大氣中被稱為氣體粒子） 可能和我們到目前為止 所經(jīng)歷的變暖差不多。 這種效應(yīng)存在很大的不確定性， 這是我們很難預(yù)測(cè)氣候變化 的主要原因之一， 但隨著排放量下降， 我們將失去這種降溫方式。 再清楚的解釋一下， 人類目前是通過大規(guī)模地 把廢氣粒子排放到大氣 從而使地球降溫的。 我們并不知道降溫的程度， 我們只是無心插柳罷了 。 這的確讓人擔(dān)憂， 但這也意味著我們有 快速的方法來降溫， 如果需要的話，我們有 緩解氣候過熱的緊急方法， 并且這是一種源于自然的方法。

This is a NASA simulation of earth's atmosphere, showing clouds and particles moving over the planet. The brightness is the Sun's light reflecting from particles in clouds, and this reflective shield is one of the primary ways that nature keeps the planet cool enough for humans and all of the life that we know. In 2015, scientists assessed possibilities for rapidly cooling climate. They discounted things like mirrors in space, ping-pong balls in the ocean, plastic sheets on the Arctic, and they found that the most viable approaches involved slightly increasing this atmospheric reflectivity. In fact, it's possible that reflecting just one or two percent more sunlight from the atmosphere could offset two degrees Celsius or more of warming.

這 NASA 對(duì)地球大氣的模擬， 顯示了云層和粒子 在地球上的移動(dòng)情況。 明亮處是云層中粒子反射陽光的部分， 并且這種反射罩是自然為人類 和我們已知的所有生物 保持地球足夠冷卻 所準(zhǔn)備的主要方式之一。 2015 年，科學(xué)家評(píng)估了 快速冷卻氣候的可行性。 他們不看重諸如那些太空鏡子， 海洋中的乒乓球， 北極的塑料布之類的東西， 他們發(fā)現(xiàn)最可行的方法 是略微增加大氣的反射率。 事實(shí)上，將從大氣中反射 的陽光增加一到兩個(gè)百分點(diǎn) 可以影響 2 攝氏度的氣溫， 甚至更高的升溫都是有可能的。

Now, I'm a technology executive, not a scientist. About a decade ago, concerned about climate, I started to talk with scientists about potential countermeasures to warming. These conversations grew into collaborations that became the Marine Cloud Brightening Project, which I'll talk about momentarily, and the nonprofit policy organization SilverLining, where I am today. I work with politicians, researchers, members of the tech industry and others to talk about some of these ideas. Early on, I met British atmospheric scientist John Latham, who proposed cooling the climate the way that the ships do, but with a natural source of particles: sea-salt mist from seawater sprayed from ships into areas of susceptible clouds over the ocean. The approach became known by the name I gave it then, "marine cloud brightening." Early modeling studies suggested that by deploying marine cloud brightening in just 10 to 20 percent of susceptible ocean clouds, it might be possible to offset as much as two degrees Celsius's warming. It might even be possible to brighten clouds in local regions to reduce the impacts caused by warming ocean surface temperatures. For example, regions such as the Gulf Atlantic might be cooled in the months before a hurricane season to reduce the force of storms. Or, it might be possible to cool waters flowing onto coral reefs overwhelmed by heat stress, like Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

我是個(gè)技術(shù)主管，不是個(gè)科學(xué)家。 大概 10 年前，因?yàn)閾?dān)憂氣候問題， 我開始和科學(xué)家們討論 氣候問題的潛在對(duì)策。 這些對(duì)話發(fā)展成了 我一會(huì)兒將會(huì)講到的 海洋云層增亮計(jì)劃的合作項(xiàng)目， 和我今天身處的非盈利組織 SilverLining （暗夜曙光）。 我跟政治家，研究者， 科技和其他行業(yè)的成員 討論這些想法。 早些時(shí)候，我遇到了 英國氣候?qū)W家約翰·萊瑟姆， 他提出了一種和船排放廢氣 同一原理的給氣候降溫的方式， 但使用一種天然的微粒來源: 海水中的海鹽霧， 從船上噴射到海洋上 易受影響的云層中。 這項(xiàng)目因我起的名字“海洋云增亮” 而為人們所知。 早先模型研究顯示只需在 10-20% 易受影響 的海洋云中部署“海洋云增亮”， 就可能會(huì)抵消多達(dá) 2 攝氏度的升溫。 它甚至可以通過使部分地區(qū)的云層變亮， 來減少海洋表面溫度上升引發(fā)的影響。 比如，在大西洋海灣等地， 在颶風(fēng)季來臨前的幾個(gè)月降溫， 可以降低風(fēng)暴的威力。 或者，它也可以冷卻流入 受熱很強(qiáng)的珊瑚礁的水流， 比如，澳大利亞的大堡礁。

But these ideas are only theoretical, and brightening marine clouds is not the only way to increase the reflection of the sunlight from the atmosphere. Another occurs when large volcanoes release material with enough force to reach the upper layer of the atmosphere, the stratosphere. When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, it released material into the stratosphere, including sulfates that mix with the atmosphere to reflect sunlight. This material remained and circulated around the planet. It was enough to cool the climate by over half a degree Celsius for about two years. This cooling led to a striking increase in Arctic ice cover in 1992, which dropped in subsequent years as the particles fell back to earth. But the volcanic phenomenon led winner Paul Crutzen to propose the idea that dispersing particles into the stratosphere in a controlled way might be a way to counter global warming. Now, this has risks that we don't understand, including things like heating up the stratosphere or damage to the ozone layer. Scientists think that there could be safe approaches to this, but is this really where we are? Is this really worth considering?

但這些想法只停留在理論層面， 并且增亮海洋云層不是唯一一種 用來提高太陽光大氣反射率的方法。 另一種方式是利用大型火山 釋放的具有足夠的力量物質(zhì)， 可以到達(dá)到達(dá)大氣層 的上層，即平流層。 在 1991 年，皮納圖博火山爆發(fā)時(shí)， 它釋放到大氣中的物質(zhì)， 包括與大氣混合 可以反射陽光的硫酸鹽。 這些物質(zhì)仍然存在并在地球上循環(huán)。 它足以在大約兩年的時(shí)間中降溫 約 0.5 攝氏度。 這種降溫導(dǎo)致 1992 年 北極冰層覆蓋率顯著增加， 然而在隨后幾年，隨著這些粒子 落回地面，冰層覆蓋率也隨之下降。 但火山現(xiàn)象促使諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)得主 保羅·克魯岑提出了一個(gè)想法， 即以可控的方式將粒子播撒到平流層， 可能是解決全球變暖的一種方式。 這個(gè)措施存在我們尚不清楚的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)， 包括加熱平流層， 或者破壞臭氧層。 科學(xué)家認(rèn)為會(huì)有安全的方式來實(shí)現(xiàn)， 但我們真的能做到嗎？ 這真的值得考慮嗎？

This is a simulation from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research global climate model showing, earth surface temperatures through 2100. The globe on the left visualizes our current trajectory, and on the right, a world where particles are introduced into the stratosphere gradually in 2020, and maintained through 2100. Intervention keeps surface temperatures near those of today, while without it, temperatures rise well over three degrees. This could be the difference between a safe and an unsafe world.

這個(gè)來自 美國國家大氣研究中心 的全球氣候模型顯示了到 2100 年的地球表面溫度。 左邊的顯示了地球 按目前軌跡的情況， 而右邊，則是一個(gè) 2020 年 微粒被逐漸播撒到 平流層， 并維持到 2100 年的情況。 干預(yù)讓表面溫度接近目前的水平， 而沒有干預(yù)，溫度將上升超過 3 度。 這可能是安全和不安全世界的差異。

So, if there's even a chance that this could be close to reality, is this something we should consider seriously? Today, there are no capabilities, and scientific knowledge is extremely limited. We don't know whether these types of interventions are even feasible, or how to characterize their risks. Researchers hope to explore some basic questions that might help us know whether or not these might be real options or whether we should rule them out. It requires multiple ways of studying the climate system, including computer models to forecast changes, analytic techniques like machine learning, and many types of observations. And though it's controversial, it's also critical that researchers develop core technologies and perform small-scale, real-world experiments.

所以，如果存在可能接近現(xiàn)實(shí)的機(jī)會(huì)， 這是我們應(yīng)該認(rèn)真考慮的嗎？ 今天，我們現(xiàn)有的能力仍然不足， 相關(guān)科學(xué)知識(shí)非常有限。 我們不知道這種干預(yù)是否具有彈性， 或如何描述它們的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 研究者希望找到一些基本問題 來幫助我們理解這些 是否是真正的選項(xiàng)， 還是我們應(yīng)該排除的選擇。 這要求多種研究氣候系統(tǒng)的方法， 包括預(yù)測(cè)變化的電腦模型， 類似機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)的分析技術(shù)， 以及很多類型的觀測(cè)。 盡管這存在爭(zhēng)議， 研究者開發(fā)核心技術(shù)并進(jìn)行小規(guī)模， 真實(shí)世界的實(shí)驗(yàn)也很重要。

There are two research programs proposing experiments like this. At Harvard, the SCoPEx experiment would release very small amounts of sulfates, calcium carbonate and water into the stratosphere with a balloon, to study chemistry and physics effects. How much material? Less than the amount released in one minute of flight from a commercial aircraft. So this is definitely not dangerous, and it may not even be scary.

有兩個(gè)研究項(xiàng)目提出了這樣的實(shí)驗(yàn)。 在哈佛大學(xué)，SCoPEx實(shí)驗(yàn) 將用氣球向平流層 釋放非常少量的硫酸鹽、 碳酸鈣和水， 來研究化學(xué)和物理效應(yīng)。 有多少物質(zhì)？ 不到商業(yè)航班一分鐘內(nèi) 的排放量。 所以這當(dāng)然沒有危害， 也談不上可怕。

At the University of Washington, scientists hope to spray a fine mist of salt water into clouds in a series of land and ocean tests. If those are successful, this would culminate in experiments to measurably brighten an area of clouds over the ocean. The marine cloud brightening effort is the first to develop any technology for generating aerosols for atmospheric sunlight reflection in this way. It requires producing very tiny particles -- think about the mist that comes out of an asthma inhaler -- at massive scale -- so think of looking up at a cloud. It's a tricky engineering problem.

在華盛頓大學(xué)， 科學(xué)家們希望在一系列 的陸地和海洋測(cè)試中， 向云層中噴灑一層細(xì)鹽水霧。 如果這些嘗試成功了， 我們將可以測(cè)量到 海洋上空的云層將變得明亮。 海洋云層增亮努力是第一個(gè) 利用技術(shù)來產(chǎn)生微粒， 以增加大氣陽光反射的方式。 這要求生產(chǎn)非常小的微粒—— 想想哮喘吸入器噴出的霧氣—— 擴(kuò)大規(guī)?！胂胩焐系脑贫?。 這是個(gè)棘手的工程問題。

So this one nozzle they developed generates three trillion particles per second, 80 nanometers in size, from very corrosive saltwater. It was developed by a team of retired engineers in Silicon Valley -- here they are -- working full-time for six years, without pay, for their grandchildren. It will take a few million dollars and another year or two to develop the full spray system they need to do these experiments. In other parts of the world, research efforts are emerging, including small modeling programs at Beijing Normal University in China, the Indian Institute of Science, a proposed center for climate repair at Cambridge University in the UK and the DECIMALS Fund, which sponsors researchers in global South countries to study the potential impacts of these sunlight interventions in their part of the world. But all of these programs, including the experimental ones, lack significant funding. And understanding these interventions is a hard problem. The earth is a vast, complex system and we need major investments in climate models, observations and basic science to be able to predict climate much better than we can today and manage both our accidental and any intentional interventions.

這是他們開發(fā)的一個(gè)噴嘴， 每秒鐘能產(chǎn)生 3 萬億微粒， 每一粒有 80 納米大小， 來自腐蝕性很強(qiáng)的鹽水。 它是由一群硅谷 的退休工程師開發(fā)的—— 就是他們—— 6 年全職工作，沒有薪水，為了后代。 還需要幾百萬美元和一到兩年的時(shí)間 來開發(fā)需要用來做這些實(shí)驗(yàn) 的全套噴灑系統(tǒng)。 在世界其他地方， 研究者的努力正在興起， 包括北京師范大學(xué)的小型建模項(xiàng)目， 印度科學(xué)研究院， 英國劍橋大學(xué)氣候修復(fù)中心， 還有DECIMALS基金， 資助了全球南部國家的研究人員， 以研究這些陽光干預(yù)措施 對(duì)他們所在地區(qū) 的潛在影響。 但所有這些項(xiàng)目，包括實(shí)驗(yàn)性的項(xiàng)目， 缺乏足夠的資金。 但了解這些干預(yù)措施是個(gè)復(fù)雜的問題。 地球是個(gè)巨大，復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)， 我們需要大力投資氣候模型、觀測(cè) 和基礎(chǔ)科學(xué) 來獲得比今天更好氣候預(yù)測(cè)， 并管理我們?nèi)魏斡幸?或無意的干預(yù)措施。

And it could be urgent. Recent scientific reports predict that in the next few decades, earth's fever is on a path to devastation: extreme heat and fires, major loss of ocean life, collapse of Arctic ice, displacement and suffering for hundreds of millions of people. The fever could even reach tipping points where warming takes over and human efforts are no longer enough to counter accelerating changes in natural systems.

這可能很緊急。 最近的科學(xué)報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，未來幾十年， 地球的發(fā)熱正走向毀滅： 酷熱及火災(zāi)， 海洋生命的大面積死亡， 北極冰崩， 數(shù)億人口流離失所，飽受苦難。 此類氣候升溫甚至?xí)_(dá)到 臨界點(diǎn)，變成溫暖主導(dǎo)， 直到人類的努力再也不能夠 扭轉(zhuǎn)自然系統(tǒng)的加速變化。

To prevent this circumstance, the UN's International Panel on Climate Change predicts that we need to stop and even reverse emissions by 2050. How? We have to quickly and radically transform major economic sectors, including energy, construction, agriculture, transportation and others. And it is imperative that we do this as fast as we can. But our fever is now so high that climate experts say we also have to remove massive quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere, possibly 10 times all of the world's annual emissions, in ways that aren't proven yet.

為了防止這種情況發(fā)生， 聯(lián)合國氣候變化國際小組預(yù)測(cè)， 我們需要在 2050 年停止， 甚至逆轉(zhuǎn)溫室氣體排放。 怎樣實(shí)現(xiàn)？我們需要主要 經(jīng)濟(jì)部門的快速和根本變革， 包括能源，建筑，農(nóng)業(yè)，交通和其他。 我們必須盡快做到這一點(diǎn)。 但我們地球的發(fā)熱現(xiàn)在如此之高， 以致氣候?qū)＜艺f我們還需要移除 大氣中的海量二氧化碳， 可能是世界年排放量的 10 倍， 用還沒有驗(yàn)證過的方式。

Right now, we have slow-moving solutions to a fast-moving problem. Even with the most optimistic assumptions, our exposure to risk in the next 10 to 30 years is unacceptably high, in my opinion.

現(xiàn)在，我們對(duì)一個(gè)快速變化的問題 有一個(gè)緩慢發(fā)展的解決方案。 即便用最樂觀的預(yù)估， 我們?cè)诮酉聛?10-30 年要面對(duì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 也是無法承受的，就我的觀點(diǎn)而言。

Could interventions like these provide fast-acting medicine if we need it to reduce the earth's fever while we address its underlying causes? There are real concerns about this idea. Some people are very worried that even researching these interventions could provide an excuse to delay efforts to reduce emissions. This is also known as a moral hazard. But, like most medicines, interventions are more dangerous the more that you do, so research actually tends to draw out the fact that we absolutely, positively cannot continue to fill up the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, that these kinds of alternatives are risky and if we were to use them, we would need to use as little as possible.

如果我們需要這樣的干預(yù)措施來 降低地球的溫度，同時(shí)從根本上解決問題， 那么這些干預(yù)措施能否 提供快速見效的藥物呢？ 人們對(duì)這些想法存在切實(shí)擔(dān)憂。 有些人非常擔(dān)心即便 是研究這些干預(yù)措施 都可能會(huì)給推遲減排努力提供借口。 這里也存在道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 但是，就像大部分藥品， 干預(yù)越多越危險(xiǎn)， 所以研究者傾向于得提出這個(gè)事實(shí)， 即我們絕對(duì)不能繼續(xù) 用溫室氣體填充大氣， 這些替代方式是有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的， 如果我們使用它們， 我們需要盡可能少地使用。

But even so, could we ever learn enough about these interventions to manage the risk? Who would make decisions about when and how to intervene? What if some people are worse off, or they just think they are? These are really hard problems. But what really worries me is that as climate impacts worsen, leaders will be called on to respond by any means available. I for one don't want them to act without real information and much better options.

但即便如此， 我們能否足夠了解這些干預(yù)， 從而用它們來管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？ 誰來做決定什么時(shí)候和如何干預(yù)？ 如果有些人情況糟糕， 或者他們這樣認(rèn)為呢？ 這些都是困難的問題。 但真正讓我擔(dān)憂的是 隨著氣候影響惡化， 各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將會(huì)被要求用 現(xiàn)存的各種方式做出反應(yīng)。 我不希望他們?cè)跊]有真實(shí)信息 和更多好的選項(xiàng)的情況下行動(dòng)。

Scientists think it will take a decade of research just to assess these interventions, before we ever were to develop or use them. Yet today, the global level of investment in these interventions is effectively zero. So, we need to move quickly if we want policymakers to have real information on this kind of emergency medicine.

在我們能夠開發(fā)和利用這些干預(yù)措施前， 科學(xué)家認(rèn)為需要 10 年的研究 才能評(píng)估它們的效果。 然而今天，對(duì)這些干預(yù)的 全球級(jí)別的投入 基本上是零。 所以，我們需要快速行動(dòng)， 如果我們想要政策制定者具備 這種應(yīng)急醫(yī)藥的真實(shí)信息。

There is hope! The world has solved these kinds of problems before. In the 1970s, we identified an existential threat to our protective ozone layer. In the 1980s, scientists, politicians and industry came together in a solution to replace the chemicals causing the problem. They achieved this with the only legally binding environmental agreement signed by all countries in the world, the Montreal Protocol. Still in force today, it has resulted in a recovery of the ozone layer and is the most successful environmental protection effort in human history.

希望是存在的！ 世界曾經(jīng)解決過類似的問題。 在 1970 年，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了保護(hù)臭氧層 所面臨的威脅。 在 1980 年代，科學(xué)家， 政治家和工業(yè)界 通過合作找到了引發(fā)這個(gè)問題 的化學(xué)物品的替代解決方案。 他們通過世界各國簽署 的唯一具有法律約束力 的環(huán)境協(xié)定實(shí)現(xiàn)了這一目標(biāo)， 《蒙特利爾議定書》。 該協(xié)議今天仍然有效， 它已經(jīng)讓臭氧層得到恢復(fù)， 并且它是人類歷史上最成功的 環(huán)境保護(hù)努力。

We have a far greater threat now, but we do have the ability to develop and agree on solutions to protect people and restore our climate to health. This could mean that to remain safe, we reflect sunlight for a few decades, while we green our industries and remove CO2. It definitely means we must work now to understand our options for this kind of emergency medicine.

我們現(xiàn)在面臨著更大的威脅， 但我們有能力去開發(fā)和通過 保護(hù)人們和恢復(fù) 我們氣候健康的解決方案。 這可能意味著要保持安全， 我們要反射陽光幾十年， 同時(shí)凈化我們的工業(yè) 和消除二氧化碳。 這無疑意味著， 我們必須從現(xiàn)在開始著手， 了解我們對(duì)這種緊急醫(yī)療的選擇。

Thank you,

謝謝。

（Applause）

（鼓掌）