50年后的歷史考試，你還能及格嗎？——來自2066年的歷史試卷

03 50年后的歷史考試，你還能及格嗎？

——來自2066年的歷史試卷

新聞報(bào)道有時(shí)被稱為歷史的初稿。本文是FT專欄作家拉赫曼為2066年畢業(yè)的學(xué)生準(zhǔn)備的歷史試卷初稿，設(shè)想了未來歷史學(xué)家可能對(duì)當(dāng)今的政治事件提出的一些問題。

第一部分：美國

1.“The orderly management of decline.” Discuss this verdict on the foreign policy of President Barack Obama.

“對(duì)衰落的有序管理?！闭?qǐng)就對(duì)美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克·奧巴馬外交政策的這一評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行論述。

2.A great social reformer or a great disappointment? Which is the fairer verdict on the presidency of Mr Obama?

一位偉大的社會(huì)改革家，還是令人大失所望？這兩個(gè)對(duì)奧巴馬總統(tǒng)任期的評(píng)價(jià)，哪一個(gè)更公正？

3.Why did the Bush and Clinton clans have such a grip on American politics between 1988 and 2020?

為什么布什家族與克林頓家族在1988年至2020年間對(duì)美國政治有如此強(qiáng)大的控制力？

4.Donald Trump was not an accident but the logical culmination of long-term trends in politics and society.Discuss.

唐納德·特朗普的崛起并非偶然，而是政治、社會(huì)長期趨勢(shì)的必然結(jié)果。請(qǐng)就這一說法進(jìn)行論述。

第二部分：歐洲

1.Brexit was a symptom, but not a fundamental cause, of the decline of the EU.Discuss.

英國退歐(Brexit)是歐盟(EU)衰落的征兆，而非根本原因。請(qǐng)就這一說法進(jìn)行論述。

2.Why was the “European project” unable to provide the definitive answer to the German question?

為什么“歐洲計(jì)劃”無法為德國問題提供明確的答案？

3.Why did the French become obsessed with their own decline in the early 21st century?

為什么法國人在21世紀(jì)初沉湎于本國的衰落？

4.A worthy successor to Adenauer and Kohl: discuss this verdict on Angela Merkel.

康拉德·阿登納、赫爾穆特·科爾的稱職接班人：請(qǐng)就對(duì)德國總理安格拉·默克爾的這一評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行論述。

5.Why was the euro such a disaster for southern Europe?

為什么說歐元對(duì)南歐是如此嚴(yán)重的一場災(zāi)難？

6.Was Vladimir Putin a good or a bad tsar for Russia?

弗拉基米爾·普京是俄羅斯的好沙皇還是壞沙皇？

第三部分：中東地區(qū)

1.Why did “the Arab spring” happen and why did it fail?

“阿拉伯之春運(yùn)動(dòng)”為什么會(huì)爆發(fā)，又為什么失敗了？

2.From 2011, the people of Syria were the victims of outside powers more than their own government.Discuss.

自2011年以來，敘利亞人民的遭遇更多地應(yīng)歸咎于外部勢(shì)力而非該國自己的政府。請(qǐng)就這一說法進(jìn)行論述。

3.How much of a threat was post-revolutionary Iran to the Middle East and to the world order?

后革命時(shí)代的伊朗對(duì)中東和世界秩序在多大程度上是威脅？

4.A Faustian bargain: discuss this verdict on the US-Saudi relationship before and after 9/11.

浮士德式的協(xié)議：請(qǐng)就這個(gè)對(duì)9/11之前及之后美國與沙特關(guān)系的評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行論述。

5.Was the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the core of the problems of the Middle East after 1989 or a distraction from the real issues?

巴以沖突是1989年后中東問題的核心，還是分散了國際社會(huì)對(duì)真正問題的注意力？

第四部分：亞洲

1.Why did Asia's great powers become obsessed with the possession of uninhabited islands and reefs during the early 21st century?

為什么21世紀(jì)初亞洲強(qiáng)國一心想要占有一些無人居住的島嶼和島礁？

2.The maintenance of Communist party rule was essential to the development of China between 1978 and 2016.Discuss.

中國共產(chǎn)黨執(zhí)政的維持對(duì)中國在1978年至2016年間的發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。請(qǐng)就這一說法進(jìn)行論述。

3.Why did China and eastern Europe take such different paths after 1989, and what were the consequences for the global order?

為什么1989年后中國和東歐走上了截然不同的道路，這對(duì)全球秩序的影響是什么？

4.The most important fact in global politics from 1980 onwards was the growing economic power of Asia.Discuss.

全球政治自1980年以來最重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)是亞洲日益增長的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力。請(qǐng)就這一說法進(jìn)行論述。

5.A brave but doomed venture: discuss this verdict on Abenomics.

一次勇敢但注定失敗的冒險(xiǎn)：請(qǐng)就對(duì)安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的這個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行論述。

6.Why did the world's great powers allow North Korea to develop nuclear weapons?

為什么世界主要大國容許朝鮮開發(fā)核武器？

第五部分：非洲和拉丁美洲

1.Why was Africa the first continent to become the subject of a contest for influence between China and the US?

為什么非洲成為中美展開影響力較量的第一塊大陸？

2.Oil was a curse not a blessing: discuss with reference to either Nigeria or Angola in the early 21st century.

石油是禍不是福：參考21世紀(jì)初的尼日利亞或安哥拉對(duì)此進(jìn)行論述。

3.Why did Hugo Chávez become an icon for the global left?

為什么烏戈·查韋斯會(huì)成為全球左派的偶像？

4.“Brazil is the country of the future and it always will be.” Was this a fair verdict between 1950 and 2016?

“巴西是未來之國，而且將永遠(yuǎn)都是?！睂?duì)于1950年至2016年間的巴西，這一評(píng)價(jià)恰當(dāng)嗎？

5.Was proximity to the US a blessing or a curse for Mexico from 1980 onwards? Discuss with reference to other Latin American countries.

地緣上臨近美國對(duì)1980年后的墨西哥是福還是禍？參考其他拉美國家對(duì)此進(jìn)行論述。

第六部分：一般問題

1.Why did the “end of history” only last for 20 years?

為什么“歷史的終結(jié)”只持續(xù)了20年？

2.Is neoliberalism a useful term for understanding the political economy of the early 21st century?

新自由主義有助于理解21世紀(jì)初的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)嗎？

3.Is neoconservatism a useful term for understanding US foreign policy in the early 21st century?

新保守主義有助于理解21世紀(jì)初的美國外交政策嗎？

4.Did globalisation lead to the creation of a global oligarchy?

全球化導(dǎo)致了全球寡頭政治的出現(xiàn)嗎？

5.Why did globalisation not kill nationalism?

為什么全球化無法扼殺民族主義？

6.Why was the rise of social media so disruptive to conventional politics?

為什么社交媒體的崛起對(duì)傳統(tǒng)政治擁有如此巨大的顛覆作用？

7.Did climate change demonstrate that a world of nation states and democratic politics was incapable of meeting the challenges of the 21st century?

氣候變化證明了由民族國家和民主政治構(gòu)成的世界無法應(yīng)對(duì)21世紀(jì)的挑戰(zhàn)嗎？

8.Will a machine ever be able to answer these questions better than a human?

機(jī)器人會(huì)有能比人類更好地回答這些問題的那一天嗎？

這些問題你會(huì)如何作答？拉赫曼邀請(qǐng)讀者回答試卷任何部分的任何問題，并將答案發(fā)送至[email protected]。最有意思的三份答案將刊發(fā)在英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》網(wǎng)站上。時(shí)間截至9月20日，答案字?jǐn)?shù)要求在700至900字（英文單詞）之間。

詞匯總結(jié)

clan [kl?n]

n.宗族；部落；集團(tuán)

have a grip on

掌握，理解，抓住，吸引(觀眾、聽眾等)

Why did the Bush and Clinton clans have such a grip on American politics between 1988 and 2020?

為什么布什家族與克林頓家族在1988年至2020年間對(duì)美國政治有如此強(qiáng)大的控制力？

become obsessed with

變得沉迷于

Why did the French become obsessed with their own decline in the early 21st century?

為什么法國人在21世紀(jì)初沉湎于本國的衰落？

Abenomics

n.安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)

A brave but doomed venture: discuss this verdict on Abenomics.

一次勇敢但注定失敗的冒險(xiǎn)：請(qǐng)就對(duì)安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的這個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行論述。

global oligarchy

全球寡頭政治

Did globalisation lead to the creation of a global oligarchy?

全球化導(dǎo)致了全球寡頭政治的出現(xiàn)嗎？

neoconservatism[,ni???k??'s??v?t?z?m]

新保守主義

Is neoconservatism a useful term for understanding US foreign policy in the early 21st century?

新保守主義有助于理解21世紀(jì)初的美國外交政策嗎？