投資新選擇：科學(xué)化的賭博？！

投資新選擇：科學(xué)化的賭博？！

2005年，當(dāng)美國麻省理工學(xué)院(MIT)數(shù)學(xué)系的學(xué)生發(fā)現(xiàn)了一種彩票的漏洞時，他們成立了一家公司專注“投資”。到那種彩票被叫停時，他們已經(jīng)累計押注約1700萬美元，賺到了350萬美元的稅前利潤。

測試中可能遇到的詞匯和知識：

mathematician 數(shù)學(xué)家[m?θ?m?'t??n]

roulette 輪盤賭[r?'let]

pseudonym 筆名；假名['sju?d?n?m]

syndicate 企業(yè)聯(lián)合；財團['s?nd?k?t]

blurring the line 模糊的界限

gamble 賭博；孤注一擲['g?mb(?)l]

lottery 彩票；碰運氣的事['l?t(?)r?]

loosen 放松；松開['lu?s(?)n]

folly 愚蠢；荒唐事['f?l?]

dice 骰子[da?s]

閱讀馬上開始，建議您計算一下閱讀整篇文章所用的時間，對照下方的參考值就可以評估出您的英文閱讀水平。

如果您讀完全文用時為： 那么，您的閱讀速度相當(dāng)于 每分鐘閱讀的英文單詞數(shù)

4分14秒 母語為英語者的朗讀速度 140

2分3秒 母語為英語的中學(xué)生的閱讀速度 250

1分53秒 母語為英語的大學(xué)生的閱讀速度 350

0分0秒 母語為英語的速讀高手 1000

Betting and investment both require skill and luck（608words）

By Adam Kucharski

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When I was a PhD student, I would get emails about companies looking to hire mathematicians. Most were engineering firms or banks but occasionally something else appeared. One firm described itself as a “sports research consultancy”. Details were sparse, but it seemed to be searching for people with advanced statistical knowledge — and an interest in the gambling industry.

Scientific betting has traditionally been a secretive affair. In decades past, card counters wore disguises to avoid security, while roulette teams predicted spins with hidden computers. Top sports bettors were known by pseudonyms, if at all. Things are changing. Betting syndicates recruit openly and bring their methods to a wider audience. In the process, they are blurring the line between gambling and investing.

Sometimes it is circumstance that drives people to turn betting into a business. When maths students at Massachusetts Institute of Technology discovered a lottery loophole in 2005, they formed a company — Random Strategies Investments LLC. By the time the lottery was discontinued, they had wagered about $17m and brought in a pre-tax profit of $3.5m.

The rise of sports analytics, combined with better data and computational power, has led to the creation of companies that specialise in betting on sport. Some operate behind closed doors but others promote their mathematical and statistical expertise to outside investors. They pitch sports betting as an alternative asset class, bringing potential for income and diversification, and is paying someone to predict sports results all that different from paying a fund manager to anticipate changes in commodity or stock markets?

The sports betting market would be transformed if the US loosened its gambling laws. At present, federal law largely prohibits sports betting, in effect outlawing online gambling. But billions of dollars are wagered illegally in the US on sport and Adam Silver, commissioner of the National Basketball Association, has argued that such betting should be legalised so it can be regulated and scrutinised. Even if it seems that investment and gambling should be distinct — one driven by skill and the other by luck — the realities and regulations suggest otherwise. Take spread betting. In the UK, betting on financial markets is classed as gambling and is tax exempt. In Australia it counts as an investment and is taxed.

The relationship between flutters and finance also extends to theory. Many ideas central to financial mathematics began with betting. Wagers inspired the concepts of expected value and economic utility, and Karl Pearson, a major figure in developing statistics as a discipline, devised statistical hypothesis testing while studying dice and roulette.

Finance has also inherited many of gambling’s psychological follies. Both industries are susceptible to the “Monte Carlo fallacy”, in which people believe that a series of repeated events, such as several coin tosses coming up heads, means a change “is due”. Another shared hazard is “gambler’s ruin”, which results from people increasing their stake after a win but not lowering it after a loss. Scientific bettors work hard to avoid such fallacies. Indeed, the degree of statistical rigour employed by leading betting syndicates is higher than that of some investment funds, particularly when it comes to “back testing” potential strategies using historical data.

The boundaries between luck and skill, and gambling and investment, are not defined by industry or activity, but rather by the person playing, and who they are playing against. The scientists who cracked blackjack and roulette in the 1960s and 70s eventually moved into finance, tired of the attention from casino security. To them, the divide was superficial. Like the modern teams tackling sports betting, they just saw another market, another set of inefficiencies, and another game to be beaten.

請根據(jù)你所讀到的文章內(nèi)容，完成以下自測題目：

1. What kind of people were “sports research consultancy” searching for?

A. with advanced statistical knowledge

B. an interest in the gambling industry

C. mathematicians are the best

D. all of them

2. What did roulette teams use to predict spins in decades past?

A. exposed computers

B. hidden computers

C. fancy dress

D. assumed name

3. Which country treats betting on financial markets as gambling and is tax exempt?

A. UK

B. Australia

C. USA

D. China

4. What define the boundaries between luck and skill, and gambling and investment?

A. industry

B. activity

C. referee

D. the playing person and opponents

[1] 答案 D. all of them

解釋：將自己描述為“體育研究咨詢公司”的公司當(dāng)時在找的，是掌握高級統(tǒng)計知識并對博彩行業(yè)感興趣的人。

[2] 答案 B. hidden computers

解釋：過去數(shù)十年，算牌手往往通過化妝來躲避賭場保安，而輪盤團隊則用隱藏起來的計算機來推斷輪盤最后的結(jié)果。

[3] 答案 A. UK

解釋：在英國，押注金融市場被歸為賭博，享受免稅。而在澳大利亞，這卻被算為投資，需要納稅。

[4] 答案 D. the playing person and opponents

解釋：運氣與技巧、賭博與投資的界限，并不是由行業(yè)或行為決定的，而是由行為人以及對手是誰決定的。